UFC 311 preview

UFC 311 Preview: Last Minute Main Event Shuffle

The First Main event of the new year for the UFC had quite an unexpected turn, Arman Tsarukyan called Dana White to opt out of the fight at approximately 1 a.m. on Thursday night due to a back injury.

At the weigh-in on Friday morning, Tsarukyan was nowhere to be found, and rumors started to matriculate about his absence and at 1:36 p.m. EST, Dana White swooped in and announced the replacement, Renato Moicano.

Moicano has a record of 20-5-1 in his MMA career, and at 34 years old it seems like he is just entering his prime. However, being listed as a massive underdog (+600) against Islam Makhachev, this will undoubtedly be the biggest test in his career.

Moicano fighting for the Lightweight belt was on a lot of people's radar in 2025, but not this early in the year, surely no one could have expected that. Injuries happen and fighters pull out regularly, but for Dana White and the UFC to be able to implement a replacement within 24 hours and have the fans overwhelmingly support it is no small feat.

With Makhachev’s money line at -800 currently, the oddsmakers are backing the current champ to get it done, but Moicano’s popularity still has the fans excited despite the odds reflecting a lopsided fight.

Co-Main Event Bantamweight Title Bout: Merab Dvalishvili (18-4, +230 odds) v Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0, -280 odds)

Dvalishvili is searching for a win in his first title defense after a unanimous decision over Sean O’Malley. Nurmagomedov is undefeated and is also coming off a unanimous decision over Cory Sandhagen. The oddsmakers are backing the challenger to take the belt from Dvalishvili.

Both of these fighters have plenty of experience and comfort grappling, so I expect plenty of takedown attempts and lots of ground and pound. Another key detail that I think compliments the emphasis on the ground game to look at in this fight is the over/under for total rounds, which is set at 4.5 and heavily favors the over.

With this fight being so heavily favored to go the distance (-275), the fight might not be as exciting as some of the others on this card, but should still be a great test for Dvalishvili (+230) in his first defense of the belt. The odds also are a testament to both of these fighters' discipline and defensive prowess.

Whoever comes next to challenge the winner of this fight, will have a tough test ahead of them. If it’s Sean O’Malley, he will need to emphasize training his ground game if he wants to compete with either of these fighters to reclaim the belt that was once his.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Jiří Procházka (30-5-1, +105 odds) v Jamahal Hill (12-2-0, -125 odds).

This bout is one of two fights on this card that have very close odds. Both of these fighters have challenged Alex Pereira for the belt and been knocked out, and both are very exciting fighters in their own right. I expect both of these guys to stand and trade shots throughout this fight, and hopefully we as fans get to see some fireworks.

Procházka took his loss more humbly than Hill, but both are obviously doing everything in their power to secure the rematch with the champ Pereira as soon as possible, a win for either of these fighters is the first step towards that.

It might take more than just this fight for White to be convinced to give another shot at the belt, but a win in convincing fashion might just be enough to earn them that chance.

These are the fights I have chosen to preview, what I think are the most anticipated fights of the night, but the early prelims and prelims have plenty of exciting fights with up-and-coming fighters.

If you’re a fan of the UFC, be sure to tune in starting at 6 EST if you want to see the likes of prospects like Bernardo Sopaj, Rinya Nakamura, Payton Talbot and Zachary Reese fight live from The Intuit Dome in Los Angeles.

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Carson Schuler is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism, to contact him please email cts5357@psu.edu.