Top potential bid stealers heading into March

Every year, the NCAA Tournament field features some unexpected guests that sneak their way into the madness of March. Of the 31 conferences in college basketball, only 10 to 15 possess the privilege of sending teams to the NCAA tournament without needing to win their respective conference tournaments. However, only a select number of teams present a worthy resume to secure an at-large bid.

The conference tournaments present opportunities for teams outside of the bubble to string wins together and steal an automatic bid. These teams, known as "bid stealers," knock out others that could have secured an at-large spot. Bid stealers build up the excitement that makes March Madness truly unpredictable and invigorating.

Last season, there were five bid-stealing squads, an unusually high amount. However, North Carolina State was the most notable example. The Wolfpack entered the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament with a conference record below .500, far removed from at-large consideration.

However, DJ Burns Jr. and company caught fire with five consecutive wins in their conference tournament, securing the ACC's automatic spot. While many expected their Cinderella run to end there, the Wolfpack’s momentum propelled them into the Final Four, proving that a team’s regular-season challenges can be erased with a well-timed hot streak in March.

As conference tournaments approach, several teams fit the bid stealer mold. Despite inconsistencies, these schools have shown flashes of potential to go on a run, snatch a bid, and crash the NCAA Tournament party. Here is a look at five teams to keep an eye on that could turn Selection Sunday into pure chaos:

ACC: North Carolina Tar Heels

Labeling North Carolina as a bid stealer seems wrong, given its storied history and ‘blue blood’ background. However, the transition from Roy Williams to Hubert Davis as head coach hasn’t gone as smoothly as fans had hoped.

The Tar Heels have been inconsistent this year, but it’s not all their fault. Given their status as a national powerhouse for the last few decades, they were victim to an extremely difficult schedule this year, facing five opponents within the top 10.

This battle-tested squad is poised to make noise in the ACC tournament. With a good blend of leadership and newcomers, they are filled with former elite recruits at nearly every position, most notably their leading scorer in senior guard RJ Davis.

This team is talented enough to beat anyone in the field and seems to be putting it all together at the right time, winning their last six games. We could even be lucky enough to see a classic Duke vs. UNC showdown to crown the conference champion.

Big 12: Kansas State Wildcats

The vibes were at an all-time low for the Wildcats at the start of the season following the losses of four starters from the previous season along with a few others. Many of those were cast into vital roles during Kansas State’s incredible 2023 NCAA Tournament quest. 2025 dawned a new era for the Wildcats, led by several impact transfers such as Coleman Hawkins, Dug McDaniel, and Brendan Hausen.

The Wildcats struggled to find consistency early on, exemplified in embarrassing losses to Liberty and Wichita State. However, as the season progressed, they regained their rhythm, defeating Kansas, Iowa State, and Arizona along the way.

Kansas State has successfully pulled off one of the biggest mid-season turnarounds in college basketball history, setting them up as a true bid-stealing threat.

Big East: Providence Friars

The Friars are another team that had bad vibes surrounding them at the beginning of the year after losing their leader, Bryce Hopkins, in the middle of his third game with a season-ending injury. However, this deep, veteran-led Providence group has overcome adversity.

Although this team is dwelling towards the bottom of the Big East, they are one of the most unpredictable in the sport. When the Friars are hitting threes, they can compete with anyone, yet inconsistency plagued them throughout the year.

Nonetheless, momentum is everything in conference tournaments, and if Providence can heat up from deep, they can do damage. The Friars are currently hitting at a near 36% clip from beyond the arc, ranking fourth among the Big East.

With strong guard play and a streaky offense that could explode at any time, Providence is a dark horse team that could turn heads in the Big East Tournament and secure an unexpected bid.

Big Ten: Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern has been through the Big Ten gauntlet, facing elite competition on a nightly basis in a loaded conference. What they lack in a flashy resume, they make up for with an experienced roster.

Led by junior Nick Martinelli, the Wildcats are well-rounded and experienced, and bring consistent intensity on both sides of the floor. The leadership and continuity within this lineup are demonstrated through their lack of turnovers. The Wildcats average a mere 9.7 turnovers per game, the least in the Big Ten.

While its record might not reflect it, Northwestern is one of the most complete teams in the conference and a team no one wants to face despite a daunting field awaiting them in the Big Ten.

SEC: Texas Longhorns

Unfortunately, Texas competes in what is arguably the best college basketball conference of all time, the SEC, which currently has 12 teams projected to make the tournament.

The Longhorns have had an up-and-down season, but any team anchored by Tre Johnson has a chance to do damage in the postseason. Johnson, a 6-foot-6 freshman, has been the offensive engine for the Longhorns and has come through in crunch time all year long.

Texas always recruits lanky, versatile pieces that can match up against anyone defensively. Johnson has perfect complements around him and the Longhorns have displayed that they can keep up with the best of the best in the SEC, notching wins over Missouri, Texas A&M, and Kentucky. Like Northwestern, this is a team that rarely turns the ball over with under 10 per game, third best in the SEC.

Tre Johnson will look to cement his status as a lottery selection in the upcoming NBA draft as Texas begins its quest to upset its way into March Madness.

Chris Carr is a second-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email cjc7403@psu.edu.