Three MLB free agents that will be overpaid

Willy Adames, Shortstop

Willy Adames is coming off of a fantastic season for the Milwaukee Brewers. Adames had perhaps his best season as a major leaguer at the most opportune time, right before he reached free agency.

In 2024, he posted a triple-slash line of .251/.331/.462, culminating in a .794 OPS. He set a career-high by bashing 32 home runs and tallied his highest RBI total at 112. He swiped 21 bags.

To be clear, Adames is a very good player and has been for quite some time. Since departing from the Rays via trade midway through 2021, he has graded out as a 13% more productive hitter than the league average. His play at shortstop has been consistently at or slightly above average.

However, coming off of the season that he had, he is in line to make much more money in free agency now than if he had tested the market in, say, 2023, when he hit only .217 and was below average at the plate.

The star infielder is projected to command a contract worth upwards of $200 million. All expectations are that Adames has priced himself out of Milwaukee and will land a deal with a higher-market team.

There are plenty of red flags to watch out for with Adames. According to Statcast, he is in the 50th percentile in sprint speed, so his stolen-base ability will sour as he continues to age.

Although he makes hard contact, it comes with plenty of swings and misses, as he is in the 21st percentile for whiff percentage and the 28th percentile for strikeout percentage.

Teams should be wary of these underlying statistics when debating signing Willy Adames to a long-term deal.

Anthony Santander, Right Field

Switch-hitting power bat Anthony Santander figures to land a significant contract in free agency after his best season in the big leagues in 2024.

An Oriole since 2017, Santander has steadily improved as time went on, culminating in a monster season in which he walloped 44 home runs in an All-Star campaign. According to OPS+, he was 34% better than the league-average hitter.

Whoever signs Santander will be receiving a solid power-centric outfielder who will take the field pretty much every day. He has been good for quite some time, but 2024 seems like an anomaly.

His average exit velocity and hard-hit percentages were his lowest marks since 2020. He can be counted on to hit around 30 home runs, but his career-high 44 home runs this year will increase his salary significantly.

The biggest concern on offense is his propensity to chase bad pitches. He chased 33.8 percent of the time this year.

Defensively, Santander is somewhat of a butcher in the outfield, and profiles long-term as a designated hitter or first baseman. He posted -2 Outs Above Average in 2024 and registered an 18th-percentile sprint speed. As a 30-year-old without speed or defensive aptitude, a long-term deal is scary.

The slugger will be paid handsomely this offseason, with most projections visualizing a contract exceeding $100 million. Realistically, his value is closer to around $50 million on a shorter-term deal.

Pete Alonso, First Base

Last but not least is two-time home run derby champion Pete Alonso. The longtime Mets first baseman is a free agent for the first time in his potent career and should have many suitors looking for an injection of power into their lineup.

Since his 2019 debut, only cross-town rival Aaron Judge has left the yard more times than Pete, as Alonso has swatted 226 taters in that time. He also is first in the Major Leagues in RBIs in that span.

Alonso is as consistent as it gets offensively and rarely misses time due to injury. The former Rookie of the Year award winner has never finished a season with an OPS+ below 122.

With this in mind, Alonso’s floor is very high, as he is well above average at the plate year in and year out.

Alas, since he hit .271 in 2022, Alonso has become very one-dimensional. Although he reached the 30 home run plateau each of the last two seasons, he did so with a diminished batting average of .217 and .240, respectively. He also averaged 166 strikeouts per 162 games over that time.

Teams have begun to figure out how to pitch to Alonso. He took a back seat to Francisco Lindor’s stardom in New York in 2024 as fans started to turn on the homegrown bopper.

In the field and on the bases, the lumbering first baseman offers next to nothing. He is a slow baserunner who cannot take the extra base and was in the 3rd percentile in Outs Above Average this season, although he has worked tirelessly to improve his defense.

Alonso hits the ball as hard as anyone in the game, but similarly to Adames, comes up empty far too often. He went down on strikes around a quarter of the time this year. He played better in the second half of 2024, but for the first time as a major league player, posted an OPS south of .800, which should worry front offices as Alonso needs to hit extremely well to offset his poor defense.

Whether it be the Mets or another team in search of some pop, Alonso will be looking for a deal in the range of six years and $160 million. Given his down year, he is more deserving of a deal with a lower annual value.

Dominick Pizzelanti is a second-year dual majoring in broadcast journalism and Spanish. To contact him, email dqp5565@psu.edu.