The ultimate betting guide to UFC 300

UFC 300 will shake up weight divisions and pave the future trajectory for the sport. While UFC fans will be watching how things play out, we will wave the crystal ball and do the job for them before the fights.

The following article contains information that is not representative of the opinions of CommRadio. It solely expresses the opinions of Antonio Fondacaro.

Justin Gaethje (-160) vs. Max Holloway

The BMF title fight! My favorite fight in the card, Gaethje’s lumbering brute-like fighting style collides with Max Holloway’s technical prowess.

There are not many bets in the world I could genuinely say I'm “jealous” of. But as someone who's bullish on Gaethje, the opening line shrinking from -230 at the open down 70 points to -160 as of Thursday, April 11, has Gaethje’s odds as ripe as they can be.

If this match was four years ago, I would take Holloway. Hollway’s style can exploit Gaethje’s “Take-and-give” style of fighting. Justin Gaethje will intentionally put himself at risk to land some of his devastating strikes.

The unfortunate truth is Holloway isn’t the same anymore. While four years ago Holloway could weave his way out of an exchange and land a picture-perfect counter, this time around I have a suspicious feeling Holloway will eventually get caught by a big shot that will set the trajectory of the fight for Gaethje.

The other reason to bet on Gaethje is the power mismatch. While Gaethje may take some unnecessary hits, trading a decently clean shot from Holloway in exchange for a punch on the “button” coming from Gaethje is a winning trade for Justin every time.

Don’t overthink this, Gaethje is still fighting at a contender level while Holloway’s skill is falling off. Take the money line.

Charles Olivera (+180) vs. Arman Tsarukyan

As the lines continue to move, this fight has grown on me as we move further into fight week.

This fights line is eerily similar to UFC 299’s Benoit Saint Denis vs. Dustin Poirier fight. In that fight, Poirier was +190 against a highly touted young guy. (Saint Denis)

In that fight, Poirier was able to dig deep after being in a rut early, eventually landing a nasty shot to instantly win the fight. While the fight featuring Oliveira and Tsarukyan may not end as flashy, the staple vet being a big dog against the up-and-comer gives me some Deja vu.

Arman Tsarukyan is a 27-year-old prospect who took the UFC by storm. With 21 wins and three losses, you have to look back to June of 2022 to find Tsarukyan’s last loss via decision against Mateusz Gamrot.

Charles Olivera has been in a “slump” if you have a loose definition of that term. Before his loss in Oct. 2022 against Islam Makhachev, Charles Olivera was arguably the best fighter in the sport.

His 11-fight win streak starting in 2018 included three title defenses, where he bested Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje in order.

While Tsarukyan is a young-blooded monster, Oliveira has way too much experience and skill to be an almost 2-1 underdog. Taking the crafty vet allows for more avenues to win, Oliveira also holds the definite edge in grappling.

*Bo Nickal (-2000) vs Cody Brundage*

If Bo loses, I’ll quit betting. In all seriousness, this bet is not worth taking.

However, as a Penn Stater it feels illegal not to include the school’s very own in the parley.

What I like about this bet is that a takedown is equivalent to an instant win. With Bo Nickal’s success in the NCAA, there’s an argument to be made that Nickal is already the best wrestler in the UFC.

Brundage is flashy, acting as another sacrificial lamb for Nickal’s inevitable title run.

To keep this quick, if you care about value do not include this bet as the payoff is extremely poor. However, I do genuinely believe I’d take this fight five times over if that was a possibility.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes (-135)

For my undercard bet of the night I had to decide between two bets I love. Those bets being Diego Lopez (-135) to defeat Sodiq Yusuff and Jiri Prochazka (+100) vs Aleksandar Rakic.

I went with Lopez due to the uncertainty of the ladder.

Diego Lopez is a submission artist, plain and simple. The game plan for Lopez is to hold his own on his two feet, set up a quality takedown, and then use his BJJ to execute and finish.

Sodiq Yusuff is the opposite, Yusuff has an impressive repertoire of quality punches that mold him into a unique striker. Yusuff likes “the fight within the fight” he feeds off reading his opponent and out hitting them to either a finish or a decision win.

I like Diego Lopez in this fight for a handful of reasons. The first being he has a lot more fights under his belt as of recently.

Since Jan. 18th, 2020, (over four years ago) Sodiq Yusuff has only fought in four UFC fights. In the stretch of time, Lopez has faced eight opponents.

Lopez also has recent championship experience to call back on. Lopez went on his Lux Fight League title run from Aug. 30, 2019, to March 12, 2021. He also fought as a contender against Nate Richardson on Oct. 17, 2021, but lost to Nate Richardson.

Sodiq Yusuff’s only title experience came on Dec. 15, 2017 when he lost to Luis Gomez via knockout in the Titan FC championship.

If Lopez keeps his head on a swivel and fights smart, he should prove to the UFC community that he joined this league to do serious things.

Here’s a handful of ways to craft the picks into profits.

The Big “Three”

Justin Gaethje (-160) vs. Max Holloway

Charles Olivera (+180) vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Bo Nickal (-2000) vs Cody Brundage

Parley Odds: Approx +378

This bet is realistically two bets with sprinkles on top. The money comes from Gaethje and Olivera, as they are the two fighters I’m feeling most confident in. The Bo Nickal bet acts as a fun but risky way to add a few extra bucks in.

Running from the BMF

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes (-135)

Charles Olivera (+180) vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Parley Odds: Approx +387 (+875 with Jiri Prochazka)

I admit the BMF fight is risky to bet on in general. The BMF fight is designed for raw entertainment value, so there’s a risk that the fight can become very emotional, and the winner will feel random.

I added Jiri Prochazka as an optional addition because I like that bet a lot, It just didn’t cut out to be included in the article. You can also add Nickal do the parley but I advise against adding him to more than one.

If you have a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit https://www.pacouncil.com/helpline/ to get the help you need today.

Antonio Fondacaro is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism, to contact him please email adf5400@psu.edu.