The luckiest and unluckiest players in the MLB in 2024

In baseball, luck typically only finds its way into the sport via small sample sizes. Over the course of a full slate of 162 games, a player’s luck will more often than not even out. Still, it’s not unheard of for a player to buck these trends for the entirety of a season.

Luckiest Pitcher - Reynaldo Lopez

Reynaldo Lopez, a starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, experienced a fantastic breakout season in 2024. Not only was this his first year for the Braves, this was Lopez’s first action as a full-time starter since 2019, as a member of the White Sox.

That year with the Chi-Sox, Lopez posted the third-worst ERA of any starting pitcher in baseball who eclipsed 30 games started with his 5.38 mark. He allowed the most earned runs of any pitcher with 110.

After re-finding himself in the bullpen from 2021-2023, the Braves took a flier on him as a starter. Lopez rewarded the team’s confidence in him by pitching to a 1.99 ERA in 135 innings. He was named an All-Star for the first time.

However, good fortune was on his side. Lopez’s FIP was 2.92, so his ERA to FIP margin was a whopping 0.93. His expected ERA was 3.88.

The most interesting statistic from Lopez’s season was his home runs allowed. In spite of a ground ball percentage in the 34th percentile of all pitchers, and a hard hit rate in the 20th percentile, he only surrendered 10 long balls. Somehow, he kept the ball in the yard despite rarely preventing hard-hit fly balls.

Luckiest Hitter - Mark Vientos

On the other side of the ball, Mets third base star Mark Vientos, who was one of the faces of the team’s resurgence in 2024, will likely come back down to Earth a little bit next year.

The 6’4” slugger bashed 27 home runs during the regular season and added five more during the Mets’ playoff run. Vientos, however, has a major swing-and-miss problem. His whiff percentage in 2024 was 29.7%, a bottom-ten mark in baseball.

Despite the power, he only hit the ball in the air just under a quarter of the time. He hits the ball significantly harder than the league average, but expectations for Vientos going forward should be that he’ll hit around 20 home runs as opposed to 30. His expected home run mark in 2024, based on his batted ball data, was 25.1.

In 2023, his first full year in the major leagues, Vientos hit just .211 and was 31% worse than the league average at the plate according to OPS+. As a slow-footed third baseman who doesn’t walk much, his production relies on pure slugging ability as opposed to speed and defense, so he’ll need as many batted balls to fly over the fence as possible.

Vientos won’t play as badly as he did in 2023, but won’t play as well as he did this season. Expectations should be tempered for Vientos entering 2025.

Unluckiest Pitcher - Reid Detmers

I wanted to go a little bit outside of the box with my selection of the unluckiest pitcher. I decided to go with Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who underwent a seemingly miserable year in 2024. But, Detmers should not be discouraged, as he fell victim to some extreme bad luck.

The main issue for Detmers was home runs. In all of 2023, in which he threw 148.2 innings, he surrendered 19 homers, which is an acceptable mark of 1.2 per nine innings. In 2024, that number was turned on his head, as he allowed 18 home runs in far fewer innings, 87.1, good for an average of 1.9 per nine.

His home run per fly ball rate, 11.7% in 2023, ballooned all the way up to 17.1%. Nearly one out of every five fly balls hit against Detmers left the ballpark. For reference, the league average is 11.6%.

Detmers was able to control basically everything that a pitcher can control. He struck out batters at a career-best rate of 11.2/9. His walk rate was slightly elevated, but not too far north of his career norm.

Although he pitched to a ghastly ERA of 6.70, his expected ERA was significantly lower, at 4.14. His fielding independent pitching value was 4.72, and his expected fielding independent pitching was 3.86. His SIERA (skill-independent ERA) mark was 3.53.

Detmers’ expected stats across the board are drastically lower than his ERA. If his home run stats were more in line with what was expected, he would have graded out as an above-average, high-strikeout lefty in 2024.

Unluckiest Hitter - Michael Toglia

Michael Toglia of the Colorado Rockies has two major problems with his game: strikeouts, and bad luck. The hulking first-baseman posted above-average WAR and OPS+ marks in 2024, but the best is yet to come for the 25-year-old.

Toglia’s calling card is his light-tower power. He socked 25 home runs in just 116 games this season, a rate of 35 per 162 games. He strikes out a ton, 32.1% of the time, but that mark was better than his 2022 and 2023 marks.

On the plus side, Toglia hits the ball extremely hard when he connects. His hard contact percentage was second in baseball behind only Aaron Judge in 2024, at 45.1%. His average exit velocity is about four miles per hour greater than the league average.

On top of the stellar contact that Toglia makes, he does many other things well. He is an adept base-stealer, totaling 10 in 2024, and can draw walks at an above-average rate of 11.8% of the time.

A switch-hitter, Toglia provides value against lefties and righties. He’s also a rare case of someone who performs better on the road than at the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field.

Should Toglia elevate the ball more, and strike out less, he’ll break out in 2025.

Dominick Pizzelanti is a second-year dual majoring in broadcast journalism and Spanish. To contact him, email dqp5565@psu.edu.