Russia's nuclear threats during the Ukraine War

In 2024, President Vladimir Putin has often reminded the world about Russia's large nuclear weapons stockpile to discourage Western countries from supporting Ukraine. Some key events include military exercises with Belarus that involved battlefield nuclear weapons, plans to ban medium-range missiles again, and changes to Russia's nuclear policy to make it easier to use nuclear weapons.

Russia has about 5,580 nuclear warheads, with many of them being powerful long-range weapons. Putin has focused on upgrading the country's nuclear forces, which include land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), nuclear submarines, and long-range bombers.

The upgrades feature new Yars ICBMs, silo-based Sarmat ICBMs (known as "Satan II"), seven Borei-class submarines armed with Bulava missiles, and the restart of Tu-160 bomber production.

The smaller, non-strategic nuclear weapons, estimated to number between 1,000 and 2,000, are important in Russia's military plans. These weapons, such as Iskander missiles and hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, can be equipped with nuclear warheads.

Regular versions of these weapons have already been used in Ukraine. Nuclear drills with Belarus earlier this year highlighted Russia's focus on being prepared for nuclear use on the battlefield.

Russia’s nuclear policy now allows for the use of nuclear weapons if there is a major non-nuclear attack on its territory, especially if it involves countries supported by nuclear-armed states. This change sends a serious warning to the West, implying that nuclear retaliation is possible if longer-range Western weapons are used against Russia.

Arms Control and Testing Concerns

The 2010 New START treaty, which limits the number of U.S. and Russian deployed nuclear weapons, faces an uncertain future as it is set to expire in 2026. Putin suspended Russia’s participation in February 2023 but promised to follow the treaty's rules. Talks between the U.S. and Russia on controlling nuclear arms have stopped because of the war in Ukraine.

Russian hardliners have suggested resuming nuclear testing to pressure the West into reducing its support for Ukraine. The Arctic testing site at Novaya Zemlya is reportedly ready for tests if the U.S. does something similar.

Future Weapon Developments

Putin has praised advanced weapons that could get past U.S. missile defenses, such as the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle and the Poseidon underwater drone. Although some systems, like the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, have technical and safety problems, work on them continues, showing Russia's dedication to keeping its nuclear edge.

Carson Schuler is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism, to contact him please email cts5357@psu.edu.