Ranking NFL playoff teams' chances of returning to the postseason

The NFL is a league rich with parody.

While 14 teams reach the postseason each year, it’s estimated about half of the playoff teams don’t return the following season. In 2023, six fresh teams qualified for the postseason, lining up perfectly with that 50% benchmark.

So, which 2023 playoff teams will get boxed out come January? Here’s a breakdown of who is most likely to miss out this time around.

No. 1: Cleveland Browns

No team is less equipped to return to the playoffs than the Browns. Last season, it took wild heroics from Joe Flacco to revive the team’s offense en route to a playoff berth.

With Deshaun Watson back under center, things could get grim fast. Watson has looked like a shell of himself since being traded to Cleveland, and it’s unclear if he has the talent to compete inside the AFC North.

Even with an impressive defense, the Browns must contend with a fearsome Ravens lineup, a healthy Bengals offense and an improved Steelers roster, in addition to facing a second-place schedule.

The deck seems completely stacked against a team that only got worse this offseason.

No. 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last year, former Brown Baker Mayfield shook off a rough two years by slotting in as the quarterback Tampa Bay desperately needed. The Buccaneers soared as a result, even winning a playoff game.

However, while they remain a solid team, they did very little to get better in the offseason. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons upgraded at a plethora of positions, most notably quarterback and head coach.

Since Tampa is tasked with a difficult first-place schedule, the Falcons could use this to their advantage and leapfrog their rival by season’s end.

No. 3: Dallas Cowboys

On paper, the Cowboys could easily return to the postseason, but their chaotic offseason indicates that may not happen.

Whether it was the contract drama surrounding CeeDee Lamb, the continued drama surrounding Dak Prescott’s future, the dissolving of the team’s run game, or the choice not to fire Mike McCarthy, a lot of concerning events went down in Texas.

Though the Cowboys will remain competitive, the road map is there for them to miss out on a playoff run in 2024.

No. 4: Buffalo Bills

No. 5: Miami Dolphins

The Bills and Dolphins make up this joint entry because both teams are tasked with tall orders inside the AFC East.

Not only will they continue competing with each other, but a much improved New York Jets team looks poised to make a playoff push of its own.

It’s possible the Jets disappoint once again, but they have the talent to make noise. It’s incredibly difficult for three teams from one division to reach January. It did happen last season inside the AFC North, but that’s an exception to the rule.

One of these two playoff contenders might have to watch the bracket from the couch this time around.

No. 6: Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Tomlin’s presence alone suggests the Steelers will continue winning games, but the team also got better this offseason.

Improvements at QB, along the offensive line and at linebacker give Pittsburgh fans a reason to believe in their squad.

Yet, with the Bengals getting Joe Burrow back, and the Browns still kicking to some degree, it’s hardly a lock the Steelers crack the AFC’s top seven.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

The Packers undoubtedly got better, but so did their rivals. The NFC North could emerge as one of the most competitive groups this fall, as the Lions and Bears look as formidable as ever.

Unlike Aaron Rodgers before him, Jordan Love must be wary of his frequent foes. Green Bay is still a good team, but if they don’t win some crucial tie-breaking games, they may find themselves slightly outside the playoff bracket.

No. 8: Los Angeles Rams

No. 9 San Francisco 49ers

The Rams and 49ers make up another joint entry because of their status as division rivals. It’s possible only one of them makes the postseason, but its more likely both return.

Due to the turnover in Seattle and the youth in Arizona, this remains a two-team race for the NFC West title.

The 49ers have a tough schedule, but their talent should allow them to remain a great team. Meanwhile, the Rams have the perfect mix of veterans and young talent to continue winning at a high level.

No. 10: Baltimore Ravens

Sure, the Ravens play inside the rigorous AFC North, but it’s hard to imagine a world where they don’t at least snag a wild card spot.

Between its MVP quarterback, excellent run scheme and elite defense, Baltimore is well-positioned to overcome the adversity its rivals present.

No. 11: Detroit Lions

Detroit faces some tall tasks this fall. A first-place schedule, alongside matchups against the NFC North, could position the Lions for a fall from grace.

Nonetheless, the crucial fact about the Lions is their continuity. They lost a few key contributors while adding around the margins. They know exactly who they want to be, and that commitment will pay dividends, even against fiercer competition.

No. 12: Philadelphia Eagles

Howie Roseman’s offseason magic worked its wonders once again.

The Eagles’ 2023 season ended in disastrous fashion, yet the Birds still made the playoffs. Now, with a much-improved coaching staff and secondary, the path has been cleared for the Eagles to waltz to an NFC East division victory in the near future.

No. 13: Houston Texans

After a surprisingly excellent season, the Texans enter the 2024 campaign as Super Bowl contenders.

While the Colts and Jaguars have the potential to give the Texans a run for their money, there are far more question marks with those teams compared to the reigning division winner.

After adding key veterans like Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, expect the CJ Stroud-led franchise to repeat as AFC South champions.

No. 14: Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning, defending, back-to-back Super Bowl Champions will have their work cut out for them if they want to three-peat. However, the Chiefs have little to worry about when it comes to reaching the playoffs.

They improved by adding exciting pass-catchers in Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, and their division rivals all seem to be in a state of flux. Patrick Mahomes and company should be able to make short work of their rivals en route to an easy AFC West first-place finish.

Joe Tuman is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email joentuman@gmail.com.