Opinion: How in the world are the Marlins 3rd in the NL East

Realistically, the Miami Marlins have no chance of competing in the stacked NL East division. They came into the year with no expectations whatsoever, with nearly all fans and analysts believing that they would finish as one of the five worst teams in baseball.

However, this ragtag group has an 8-10 record after the first two weeks of games. Seeing this has given me a bit of de ja vu, as we have seen this act from Miami before.

In 2020, the Marlins made it into the Wild Card series and beat the Cubs despite losing nearly their entire roster to the COVID-19 injured list. In just a 60-game season, they managed to use 61 different players en route to winning 31 regular-season games.

In 2023, the Marlins were predicted to compete with the Nationals for a spot in the basement of the NL East. Miraculously, they once again made it into the Wild Card series, this time falling to the Phillies.

That team leaned heavily on their young starting pitching staff and Luis Arraez’s .354 batting average. Their Pythagorean win-loss record (a metric that predicts a team’s record based on the number of runs they score compared to the number of runs they allow) pegged them as a 75-win team, when in reality, they won 84 games.

The Marlins as a franchise seemingly never are projected to make the playoffs, yet every once in a while, they pull a rabbit out of the hat, shocking the baseball world and sneaking into the postseason.

Is it possible that the 2025 Marlins could do the same? This team is strikingly short on household names. The most recognizable player on the squad is their ace, Sandy Alcantara, who has posted a 4.70 ERA so far in his return from Tommy John surgery.

He hasn’t been bad, but an ERA north of four is certainly below the lofty standards he’s set for himself.

As for the other members of their starting rotation, there has been a lot to like. Former highly-touted prospect Max Meyer seems to have finally turned the corner, as he carries a tidy 2.00 ERA so far alongside a K/9 rate of 9.5.

Connor Gillespie, Valente Bellozo and Edward Cabrera have all held their own so far as well. Their early baseline results are encouraging, but their underlying metrics all point towards imminent regression. Each of those three pitchers has walked nearly as many batters as they’ve struck out.

The bullpen is an unlikely alliance of castaways from around the league. Nonetheless, they’ve treaded water and posted a respectable ERA of 4.50, relying heavily on contributions from Anthony Bender, Lake Bachar and Ronny Henriquez.

Surprisingly, the wins have come largely on the backs of their starting lineup. The starting nine is quite top-heavy, but their top four hitters have been so good that it really hasn’t mattered what the bottom of the order has done.

First baseman Matt Mervis, a former Cubs prospect who Chicago gave up on after two years of subpar results, has 5 home runs and a 1.077 OPS to lead the team. Outfielder Kyle Stowers, who was acquired at last year’s trade deadline, is hitting .314 with 10 RBIs.

Left fielder Griffin Conine, who is the son of Jeff Conine, one of the best players in franchise history who dons the nickname “Mr. Marlin”, also has a batting average over .300 alongside a hard-hit percentage in the 90th percentile in Major League Baseball.

The Marlins also did their best to clone Luis Arraez in the form of shortstop Xavier Edwards. Edwards probably has less power than Arraez (which is difficult to do considering Arraez averages just 7 home runs per 162 games), but he plays shortstop and is one of the fastest players in the league.

He leads the team in hits, walks, stolen bases and runs scored, serving as a spark plug atop the Miami batting order.

Once again, Pythagoras frowns upon this team. Their Pythagorean win-loss record for this year is below .500, as they’ve scored 65 runs while allowing 71 to their opponents.

By the end of the season, all signs point to them finishing in last place in the NL East, but this team is prone to shocking the world despite an ownership group that historically has not cared about winning.

It will be fun to watch this team as the season rolls on and see if history can repeat itself once more.

Dominick Pizzelanti is a second-year student dual-majoring in broadcast journalism and Spanish. To contact him, email dqp5565@psu.edu.