NFL Game of the Week: Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

You couldn’t script a better Week 5 matchup. Two heavyweights from the NFC meet at primetime on Sunday Night Football in a rematch of last year’s NFC Divisional Round matchup.

The (3-1) Dallas Cowboys will travel to Santa Clara looking to avenge back-to-back disappointing ends to their 2021 and 2022 seasons with a win over the undefeated (4-0) San Francisco 49ers.

By The Numbers

This rivalry extends far beyond the last two postseason meetings between these two storied franchises. The overall series record is dead even at 19-19-1 across regular season and postseason history. This matchup has been featured in the playoffs nine times, which ties an NFL record. With both teams sitting atop the NFC in point differential through four games, it would not be a shock to see Dallas and San Francisco break the NFL record in January.

Analytics

Both of these squads are off to historically dominant starts through the opening quarter of the 2023 season.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks first in defensive expected points added (EPA) while the 49ers’ offense ranks at the top in offensive EPA (excluding garbage time). If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it is a statistic to quantify how each play impacts a team’s chance to score on that drive. To make it simpler, a higher EPA is better for an offense and the opposite for the defense.

The stat does a great job of identifying the best teams in the league each season, so both of these units ranking first is a great indicator of future success.

This tells us two things:

1. The 49ers offense vs. the Cowboys defense is the best unit vs. unit matchup you can create in the NFL.

2. These two teams will likely be playing into late January/February.

Protect The Rock

If you started or faced the Dallas defense in fantasy football this season, this should not come as a surprise. The Cowboys lead the NFL in non-offensive touchdowns with four. They have also forced 10 turnovers, albeit against three poor offenses led by turnover-prone quarterbacks (Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones).

The 49ers offense sits atop the league (along with Dallas and Seattle) in the lowest number of giveaways by an offense. All three units have only turned the ball over once all year. What happens when the league leaders in protecting the ball and turning the ball over meet? One has to give. We’ll see which one it’ll be on Sunday night.

Ground Game

One way to mitigate the risks of turnovers is by running the ball. Something the 49ers will almost certainly lean on after watching Dallas allow 222 rushing yards on 30 carries in Week 3 at Arizona (7.4 yards per carry). It also helps when the guy toting the rock for you leads the league in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and first downs. That would be Christian McCaffrey, the halfback the 49ers acquired last year from Carolina. Since trading a king’s ransom of picks for CMC, the 49ers have won 14 consecutive regular-season games dating back to last season.

Cowboys halfback Tony Pollard failed to get it going in last year’s playoff matchup at San Francisco. It’s hard to put much of the fault on No. 20 as he only touched the ball six times for 22 yards in that game. McCaffrey also only had 10 rushes for 35 yards plus a touchdown in the second-round matchup. It would make sense to see these two guys be featured much more on the ground to try to tame these two stellar pass rushes, led by Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons.

“I think we held him [Christian McCaffrey] tight and we made him earn everything,” Parsons said. “And we’re going to have to do that again. I think the biggest thing these guys know how to do, if you look at their film, is they know how to make guys miss and they break a lot of tackles which extend for 10 or 15 yards. If we can just tackle and run to the football hard, it’ll be a long game for both teams.”

Rocco Pellegrino is a first-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email rdp5387@psu.edu.