NFL Free Agency Overpays

Tier one of the NFL’s open market always has one constant.

Some teams feel desperate when the “legal” tampering period opens, which was the case on Tuesday at noon, leading to some drastic overpays for top-ranked free agents.

The majority of the most coveted players are locked into long-term deals, so here are two confusing contracts given out to players through the opening few days of free agency.

Tennessee Titans: Calvin Ridley (Four years, $92 million, $50 million guaranteed)

Small market teams from less attractive locations typically have to spend a few extra bucks to draw in top-tier players.

We saw this with Jacksonville back in the 2022 offseason where they famously paid Christian Kirk $17 million a year, a deal widely regarded as an overpay, but it now looks like that deal paid off.

However, the other Jaguars wide receiver whom general manager Trent Baalke traded for in 2022, Calvin Ridley, caused the first big shockwave of the 2024 league year by deciding to leave Florida for more money in Nashville.

There are the obvious concerns with Ridley, such as a gambling suspension and an inconsistent year with Trevor Lawrence highlighted by an inefficient 55.9% catch rate that ranked 88th among NFL receivers, a number that slots in as the worst of Ridley’s career.

The more glaring concerns come with the Titans' current situation and Ridley’s age.

Tennessee still has a large question mark at quarterback, a new first-year head coach in former Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, a depleted defensive roster with glaring needs in the secondary and a 31-year-old Deandre Hopkins on the outside at their X spot.

Handing out a long-term deal to the 29-year-old Ridley with massive needs elsewhere for a team in a rebuilding stage just does not make a ton of sense.

It screams of a team trying to remain competitive without any real Super Bowl contention, which is normally not a recipe for success.

It is not as simple as tearing everything down to rebuild while tanking for a top pick, but it makes more sense for the Titans to be more conservative with their resources.

Chicago Bears: D’Andre Swift (Three years, $24 million, $15.3 million guaranteed)

This is not going to hurt the Bears too bad even if it does not work out. The contract is not that large, and Chicago can easily get out of it after two seasons.

However, the Bears already have Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson in their running back room, and paying D’Andre Swift the seventh-highest contract for a tailback by APY seems illogical.

Miles Sanders left the Eagles after a 2022 season where he averaged 4.9 yards per carry behind a stout Philadelphia offensive line.

Sanders received a four-year, $25.4 million deal from the Carolina Panthers in the offseason.

Behind a worse offensive line and a poor offense overall in Carolina, Sanders averaged 3.3 yards per carry to go along with one touchdown with only 432 rushing yards. All of those were career lows for the former Penn State running back.

While Swift is a more versatile back who can be used in the receiving game, this feels like it could follow a very similar story as Sanders.

Chicago may very well end up with an explosive offense quarterbacked by Caleb Williams next year, and it could be enough to ignite Swift and this rushing offense.

The Bears offensive line is also quietly underrated, ranking as the second-best team in ESPN’s run block win rate metric at 75%.

The number may further support the point that the Bears should have stuck with Johnson, their fourth-round pick in last season’s draft, and Herbert, who has averaged just shy of five yards per carry in his three years with Chicago.

Rocco Pellegrino is a first-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email rdp5387@psu.edu.