NFL Betting: Week 11

The following article contains information that is not representative of the opinions of CommRadio. It solely expresses the opinions of Dominick Pizzelanti.

The last time I wrote an article about betting, I chose only one out of four games correctly. In Week 11, the scent of revenge is in the air. I’ve cooked up a three-leg, +529 parlay that is (hopefully) guaranteed to turn your betting slip green. Make sure to tail.

Packers spread over Bears (-5.5, -110)

In Week 10, the Packers somehow were defeated by the Lions in spite of picking off Jared Goff a whopping five times. Against the Bears this week, the 6-3 Packers have a tremendous opportunity to bounce back from that loss right away.

Jordan Love leads the way for the Pack. He has had his fair share of turnovers this season, with 11 interceptions on his ledger. He is, however, one of the best quarterbacks in the league in terms of avoiding sacks, and the Bears have a near-nonexistent pass rush.

If Love can get back in touch with wide receiver Jayden Reed, who has cooled down after a blazing start to the year, he could have a field day on Sunday afternoon.

The Bears are in turmoil. Since a fine start to their season with Caleb Williams looking solid, the team has begun to freefall and now sit in last place in the NFC North with their 4-5 record. The team announced this week that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired.

They carry no semblance of momentum into the matchup, and the Packers should be able to win by six or more points fairly easily in this rivalry game.

Chiefs moneyline over Bills (+112)

Chiefs are set to take on the Bills this week, and Kansas City looks ready to handle business. Although they may currently be the worst 9-0 team the league has ever seen, I foresee them extending this to 10-0.

This is a Chiefs defense that has held 30 consecutive opponents to under 28 points—a feat that hasn’t been matched since the 2000-01 Eagles under current Chiefs head coach Andy Reid.

This kind of consistency on the defensive end is exactly what they need to stifle Josh Allen, who has been up and down in recent weeks.

Despite a Week 10 win over the Colts, Allen threw two picks and missed some key throws, looking uncharacteristically shaky, and showing cracks that a steady Chiefs defense will capitalize on.

Patrick Mahomes, per usual, will be leading the charge. Mahomes himself had his share of challenges this season but remains second to none in clutch situations. His record of 19-14 when down by double digits speaks for itself.

Look no further than his recent comeback against Denver, where he erased an 11-point deficit to secure a win. This resilience could prove decisive against a Bills team still searching for steadiness.

Kansas City’s flair for dramatic finishes—with four walk-off wins at home already this season—highlights their ability to step up when the game is on the line.

On the other side, the Bills have been leaning on turnovers to generate points, a strategy that won’t cut it against the ball security of Mahomes and the Chiefs. Expect them to take this game and continue rolling, even if the books don’t see it this way.

This game will without a doubt be a tight contest that comes down to the final quarter, and if you’re a fan (or bettor) of the Chiefs, that is exactly what you’re looking for.

Ravens moneyline over Steelers (-180)

The Ravens head into this Week 11 clash against the Steelers with momentum on their side, fresh off of a dramatic 35-34 victory over the Bengals. Baltimore showcased their offensive firepower as they have all year to this point, scoring three fourth-quarter touchdowns over 65 yards each.

Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat skillset and late-game magic were pivotal. He’s proved that he can ignite the Ravens’ offense at any point, even if the offense looks dormant at the beginning of the game.

Wide receiver Tylan Wallace’s surprise breakout game last week adds additional depth to their aerial attack.

The Steelers, despite a narrow 28-27 win over the Commanders, have shown defensive lapses all season. We’ve seen them collapse after hot starts so many times over the years, and I see this matchup as the beginning of yet another fall back down to Earth.

Pittsburgh’s pass rush and secondary will struggle to contain Jackson, especially with standout defensive back Kyle Hamilton in line to return to action for Baltimore. While Russell Wilson and George Pickens have begun to mesh, their offense lacks the explosiveness needed to match the Ravens’ defensive big-play ability.

With Baltimore's success in generating momentum-shifting plays, they are well-equipped to take this game in enemy territory in Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ vulnerabilities and the Ravens’ powerful offensive don’t bode well for a Pittsburgh underdog victory.

Bet on the favorite in this game to win outright.

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Dominick Pizzelanti is a second-year dual majoring in broadcast journalism and Spanish. To contact him, email dqp5565@psu.edu.