NBA Western Conference playoff race

With the NBA regular season nearly coming to a close, both conferences are in completely different positions.

The Eastern conference standings are almost entirely decided, with the four play-in teams and six postseason teams already locked in.

The Western conference, however, has some of the greatest variability we have ever seen this late into the season.

The difference between seeds 3-8 is just two games, meaning that teams could go from hosting a first-round playoff series to needing a play-in win just to make the postseason and teams could go from fighting for a playoff life to making it comfortably.

So, with just three games remaining, let’s predict how the Western Conference will shake out.

CURRENT STANDINGS (BEFORE 4/9 GAMES)

1.) Oklahoma City Thunder (65-14)

2.) Houston Rockets (52-27)

3.) Los Angeles Lakers (48-31)

4.) Los Angeles Clippers (47-32)

5.) Denver Nuggets (47-32)

6.) Golden State Warriors (47-32)

7.) Memphis Grizzlies (47-32)

8.) Minnesota Timberwolves (46-33)

9.) Sacramento Kings (39-40)

10.) Dallas Mavericks (38-41)

The Locks: Thunder, Rockets, Kings, Mavericks

As you can tell, these teams are here for two different reasons.

Oklahoma City and Houston have the top two seeds in the conference secured with 65 and 52 wins, respectively. The Kings and Mavericks are currently the 9 and 10 seeds in the West, with little room for movement.

Sacramento is seven games behind the 8-seeded Timberwolves and just a game above Dallas.

The Mavericks could lose the last play-in spot to Phoenix, but since the Suns play have the Thunder still remaining on their schedule, a loss would knock them out of playoff contention.

Even though there is a chance the Kings and Mavericks trade seeds by season’s end, it’s likely neither team makes it out of the play-in tournament, let alone makes any noise in the postseason party.

Seeds 7-8: Timberwolves and Grizzlies

These teams currently sit at these seeds, but in a different order.

Minnesota (46-33) and Memphis (47-32) clash on April 10 in what will be the most important game of both teams’ seasons, but the Timberwolves have a drastically easier schedule down the stretch.

Their last two games come against the Nets and the Jazz, two teams more prepared for the draft lottery rather than their upcoming games. Memphis must play at Denver and against the Mavericks to end their season, with neither game being a gimmie.

I have Memphis winning two of their last three to close the regular season, including the pivotal win over Minnesota.

I then have the Timberwolves winning their last two games after the loss to Memphis. This would put the Timberwolves at a 48-34 record, one game worse than the Grizzlies’ 49-33.

The importance here is jarring: Both teams would still meet in the play-in tournament, but Memphis would get home court advantage in the battle for the seven-seed.

It’s hard to imagine the Grizzlies not being favored in this game, making their regular season matchup on Thursday of even higher importance.

Seeds 5-6: Nuggets and Clippers

Heading towards the playoffs, these teams are moving in completely opposite directions.

The Nuggets have seen better days. They’ve lost their last four games and seven of their last ten. They recently just saw the overhauling of Mike Malone and Calvin Booth, Denver’s head coach and general manager.

Their defense has been some of the worst in the league, ranking 25th in the league in points allowed.

The one thing they have going for them as they limp into the playoffs is still a strong advantage: They have Nikola Jokic and no other team does.

As history has shown us, Jokic has the ability to give the Nuggets a chance in any playoff series.

The Clippers on the other hand, are as hot as ever. They have won 12 of their last 14 games, with the only two losses coming to Cleveland and Oklahoma City, the two best teams in the league.

While they do not have the most talented team, getting hot just before the postseason gives you a great chance of going on a run.

Despite their recent skid, I have Denver winning against Sacramento and Memphis before losing their last game of the season at Houston. This would put them at a 49-33 record to close the season.

I have the Clippers winning against the Rockets and Kings, but also losing their last game on the road against the Warriors. This would tie Denver’s 49-33 record.

This is where some fun can happen.

With these results, the first tie-breaker would be head-to-head record. The teams split their four games in the regular season, so the next determiner would be conference record.

With these predictions, Denver’s conference record would be 31-21, while LA’s would be 28-24, meaning Denver still gets the 5-seed.

Seeds 3-4: Lakers and Warriors

Is this basic? Maybe. Is it most likely? You bet.

One can argue that if these teams had their current makeup at the beginning of the season, they would be the two and three-seeds in the conference right now.

The Lakers and Warriors have been playing their best basketball since their blockbuster trades for Luka Dončić and Jimmy Butler at the deadline, well-equipped for playoff basketball.

Despite injuries that have sidelined LeBron James late in the season, the Lakers have climbed to the 3-seed in the conference with a relatively easy schedule in front of them.

If not for an arguably premature Dončić ejection on Tuesday against the Thunder, the Lakers could be two valuable games ahead of Golden State.

As for the Warriors, they have won six of their last seven games to put themselves in a position of controlling their own destiny in the standings, which I believe they will.

I have them winning their last three games against the Spurs, Trailblazers and Clippers, propelling them to the four-seed with the Clippers and Nuggets both dropping a game.

Similar to Golden State, I have the Lakers winning their last three games against the Mavericks, Rockets and Trailblazers to hold onto the three-seed.

With all of these results, here are the playoff matchups we would get in the first round:

(1) Thunder vs. (8) (Kings/Mavericks/Loser of Minnesota vs. Memphis)

(4) Warriors vs. (5) Nuggets

(3) Lakers vs. (6) Clippers

(2) Rockets vs. (7) (Winner of Minnesota vs. Memphis)

Brendan Kern is a first-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email bwk5372@psu.edu.