NBA game of the week: Heat vs. Nuggets

For the first time since the 2023 NBA Finals, The Nuggets will square off against the Miami Heat. The Heat are underway with their annual second-half surge, as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games picking up a few key wins against the 76ers and the Bucks. The Nuggets have been atop the Western Conference for most of the season, and currently are in third.

Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has been keeping up his stellar play, and he is currently a slight MVP favorite over the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic. Jokic’s recent performance of 30 points, 15 assists and 15 rebounds marks the third time he has put up a 30-15-15 game.

This Denver team is composed of most of the same players from their finals team, with Bruce Brown being the only notable subtraction. The Heat will show up to the Mile-High City with some new faces, including Terry Rozier and Jamie Jaquez Jr.

Looking at the teams, the Denver defense posts a tough matchup for the Heat perimeter shooters. The Nuggets allow 11.4 threes per game, the third-best in the league. The Heat are top 10 in the NBA from behind the arc, shooting 37.8%. Because of his matchup, Duncan Robinson will be the true x-factor for the Heat in this contest. If he can hit his shots, the Heat might be able to pull off the upset. Jimmy Butler has been hitting threes at an uncharacteristic 45% mark, a number which has not come close to in his 13-year career.

Down in the paint, Bam Adebayo vs Nikola Jokic is a center matchup that everyone should be focusing on. The Heat allow the third lowest offensive rebounds per game, While Denver is top 10 in that category. Adebayo and the other Heat bigs need to limit the second-chance points of the Nuggets to keep a close game.

Jimmy Butler, despite being a perennial All-Star, has never been the guy to put up extraordinary scoring numbers, at least not in the regular season. The Heat have built up this stereotype of being a team that just passes by in the regular season and then turns the notch to the max come playoff time. Denver has enjoyed plenty of regular-season success in the Jokic era and capped it off with a championship last season.

When it comes to predicting this game, it’s simple: One team has Nikola Jokic and one doesn't. These teams are both incredibly well built with very good spacing and good perimeter defenders. Miami doesn't have a tall wing defender to put Michael Porter Jr. in the corner, and once Jokic crashes the paint it’s gonna be hard to defend the team as a whole.

If Jimmy Butler wants to win this game, he’ll play for it. But Denver might just be too good of a team.

PICK: Denver Nuggets

Will Harrison is a first-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email wbh5205@psu.edu