MLB Wild Card Race

With just 24 days remaining in the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season, the race for the three Wild Card spots in each league is as competitive as ever.

Since the Wild Card was implemented in MLB in 2012, September has been a month of opportunity for clubs in each league that can’t quite catch the leaders of their division, but still field a roster competitive enough to sneak into the playoffs.

After Major League Baseball once again amended the playoff structure in 2022 (in addition to a trial run in the Covid-shortened 2020 season) to include three wild card teams in each league, more teams than ever remain in a playoff race after the calendars flipped from August to September.

Here is a look into some of the teams that are either in the hunt for a Wild Card spot or are currently positioned in a spot:

American League

New York Yankees:

After entering the season with World Series aspirations following their blockbuster trade for Juan Soto, the Yankees have, rather inconsistently, backed it up.

At many points in the season, the Yankees have held sole possession of first place in the American League East, but after a heartbreaking loss to the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night, the Orioles once again leapfrogged them.

At this point in the season, the 80-60 Yankees are all but a lock to reach the postseason. The question surrounding the team is whether they’ll be a wildcard team or a division winner.

They will also hope that Luis Gil, who returns from the injured list today, can stabilize their rotation down the stretch. With the two-headed monster of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto anchoring the lineup, and complementary bats such as rookie Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton and trade deadline acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. producing above-average seasons, it will ultimately be pitching that will determine the fate of Aaron Boone’s squad.

Minnesota Twins

The perennially competitive Twins have had a very similar season to the seasons they’ve had for the past half-decade. Their only problem is that this season, the American League Central division is as competitive as it’s been for quite some time, with the division-leading Guardians, Twins, Royals and Tigers all holding a record of .500 or better.

The Twins currently sit in second place in the division and the Wild Card, and have gone cold at a bad time, winning just three out of their last ten games.

They’ve received production from unexpected names, including Carlos Santana, Ryan Jeffers and Simeon Woods-Richardson along with the expected star power of Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis.

However, more could be asked of closer Jhoan Duran, who sports an ERA of north of three for the first time in his young career, and veteran frontline starter Pablo Lopez, who has pitched better as of late but still has not had the type of season he has become accustomed to.

They have a 5.5-game lead in the Wild Card standings right now but will need to end their slump to avoid a late-season collapse.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals currently hold the third-place AL Wild Card spot, with the Twins being tied in terms of record but holding the tiebreaker over them.

The Royals had an eventful free agency last winter, bringing in starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, bullpen arms Will Smith and Chris Stratton and outfielder Hunter Renfroe among others. After being cellar dwellers for the majority of the time following their 2015 World Series championship, the overlooked Royals have come out of nowhere to hold a playoff spot well down the stretch this season.

They have gone cold recently, but have the roster to compete. All of their signings have worked out to some degree, especially in the case of Lugo and Wacha, and shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. would be well on his way to an MVP award if not for the tremendous accomplishments of Aaron Judge.

While their lineup has some holes, namely in the outfield, they were able to sure up third base and their bullpen with the trade deadline acquisitions of Paul DeJong and Lucas Erceg, respectively.

Their quartet in the rotation of Lugo, Wacha, Cole Ragans, and Brady Singer has more than held down the fort and gives them multiple starting options for their potential three Wild Card games.

Not to mention, Will Smith has won three straight World Series rings with three different teams. Can he make it four?

In The Hunt:

Boston Red Sox

Boston is the closest to catching one of the Wild Card teams, but they have their work cut out for them. They’ve now lost their last five games after being swept by the Mets.

Superstar third baseman Rafael Devers is in the midst of one of the coldest stretches at the plate in his entire career, the defense is a question mark and their pitching has faltered down the stretch.

They have a 4.8% chance of making the postseason according to Baseball Reference and are 5.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot, but their solid, young lineup gives them a fighting chance.

Detroit Tigers

Having been well out of contention for the majority of the year, few would have thought that the Tigers would have made it this far into the year and still been in the playoff conversation.

Their 7.4% chance to reach the postseason according to Baseball Reference is actually higher than Boston’s, and they have a run differential of +13. Even after being sellers at the deadline, possible Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal has carried this team throughout their recent hot streak.

They have a ways to go before they catch any teams ahead of them, but with the new postseason format, sometimes all that matters is who gets hot at the right time.

Seattle Mariners

What can be said about the Mariners that hasn’t been said already? Their pitching staff has been historically good, and their offense has been historically bad. That culminates in a .500 record.

Their +35 run differential bests the marks of both the Red Sox and the Tigers, but their best hitter sports an OPS+ of 116, and last year’s Rookie of the Year Award winner has regressed to a paltry 0.686 OPS with 13 home runs.

It remains to be seen whether their first-rate pitching staff can nudge them into the postseason with 22 games remaining on their schedule.

National League:

San Diego Padres

Following their offseason trade of Juan Soto, it would have been reasonable to assume that the Padres would take a couple of years to regain competitiveness.

No such thing has happened. Their return in the trade included Michael King, who sports a 3.17 ERA in 26 starts, and catcher Kyle Higashioka, who has blasted 16 home runs in a backup role with a 118 OPS+.

Their lineup is fantastic from top to bottom, with electric rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill leading the way with his 0.828 OPS.

Twelve years after he was named MLB.com’s top prospect, Jurickson Profar has enjoyed the post-hype breakout of a lifetime, having been selected to the All-Star team and smacking 21 home runs. On the pitching end, Dylan Cease, Joe Musgrove, and Yu Darvish have done their jobs behind King, and closer Robert Suarez has converted 31 saves.

They are a half-game above the Diamondbacks for the first Wild Card spot and have gone 7-3 in their last ten games. They have played well all season, and seem poised to continue their success into this year’s postseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are one of the most exciting young teams in all of baseball, and following their unlikely World Series run last year, they have mirrored their success from last year’s regular season and then some.

Had Ketel Marte not dealt with some ankle injuries this year, he would be in the running for National League MVP. Thankfully for the Snakes, he appears close to a return. They also just got Christian Walker back from the injured list, although the corresponding move was Lourdes Gurriel Jr. requiring a stint of his own on the I.L.

Outside of the lineup injuries, it comes as no surprise that as Corbin Carroll has gotten progressively better throughout the year after some initial sophomore struggles, so has his team. His season OPS has climbed all the way to .748 after once sitting low in the .600s.

Platoon bat Joc Pederson has exploded this year to the tune of a team-leading 157 OPS+ alongside 21 big flies. The entire team can cover some serious ground in the field with their top-to-bottom speed, leading to tremendous defensive ratings.

Their pitching isn’t anything to write home about but has certainly held its own, and it’s truly difficult to say anything bad about a staff that is headlined by Zac Gallen. They sit two games in front of the Braves for the second wild card spot.

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta lost their best pitcher, Spencer Strider, and best hitter, Ronald Acuna Jr., for the year early in the season. Their response? A 76-63 record and third-place Wild Card spot.

There are certainly teams bearing down on them, but they have ridden a resurgent Chris Sale and the triple-crown-watch bat Marcel Ozuna to a red-hot stretch run.

Five of their everyday lineup members have an OPS+ of 100 or better, And their entire starting rotation has pitched to around a league-average ERA+ (or, in the case of Sale, seventy-one percent better than the league average).

The Braves have a track record of postseason success and a history of playing some of their best baseball when their most impactful players go down with injury, with the premier example being their 2021 World Series, which was also won without Ronald Acuna Jr. The bullpen has performed as advertised, headlined by Raisel Iglesias compiling 30 saves.

Fortunately for the other Wild Card hopefuls in the NL, Matt Olson and Michael Harris Jr. have vastly underperformed, and third baseman Austin Riley has been on the injured list. Atlanta will look to make history repeat itself and hold on to the final playoff spot.

In The Hunt:

New York Mets

There has been no National League team with a better record than the Mets since late June. After once being 11 games under .500, they are now 12 games over .500.

Call it good hitting, good pitching, or Grimace luck but any way you cut it, the Mets have gotten hot at the right time. Even with their success, they are half a game behind the Braves for the final wild card spot.

The Mets will hope that their middle-infield tandem of MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and Latin-pop-star-turned-second-baseman Jose Iglesias can help them sneak into the postseason. The team is almost too fun to not be playing once October arrives.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are on the outside looking in but are still very much in the hunt being four and a half games back with a little under a month to play.

They have a 6.2% chance of reaching the postseason according to Baseball Reference due in no small part to shortstop Dansby Swanson hitting just .241 and former ace Kyle Hendricks wielding a 6.60 ERA.

Their lineup has been just about league average, and their pitching staff has been very good. With a +57 run differential, they have all of the peripherals of a playoff team, but they have some ground to make up.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals currently have the lowest odds of any team in the hunt to reach the postseason, at just 0.9%.

Former MVP Paul Goldschmidt and future Hall-of-Famer Nolan Arenado have been shells of themselves, and Nolan Gorman played himself into a demotion to AAA.

Their chances lay in the hands of the emergent Masyn Winn and their all-veteran starting rotation, but they can ill-afford to lose many more games until the end of the season as they sit 5.5 games out of the postseason.

All statistics as of September 5, 2024

Dominick Pizzelanti is a second-year dual majoring in broadcast journalism and Spanish. To contact him, email dqp5565@psu.edu.