MLB: Preseason World Series odds vs. current odds

Major League Baseball (MLB) is often unpredictable due to the grueling 162-game schedule teams embark on each year. Despite this, experts and amateurs attempt to predict what the MLB postseason will look like before each season. In 2024, there have been many surprising risers and fallers compared to pre-season predictions.

Biggest risers

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers may be the biggest surprise story of the 2024 season. Preseason predictions gave the Tigers a 28.9 percent chance to make the postseason. This would look optimistic compared to their odds on Aug. 11, which gave Detroit a meager 0.2 percent chance.

For most teams, this would mean the season was already over. The Tigers themselves thought it was a lost season and traded away some key pitching pieces at the trade deadline on July 31.

Since Aug. 11, however, the Tigers have been a team reborn. 29 wins and 11 losses have shot their postseason odds up to 91.4 percent as they look to hold on to one of the final two American League (AL) Wild Card spots.

Pitching has been the main reason for Detroit’s sudden resurgence. Tied for 3rd in MLB in earned run average (ERA), Detroit has been stellar at preventing runs. This staff is led by the AL Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal. He currently carries a 2.39 ERA with 221 strikeouts and a 17-4 record.

Kansas City Royals

Another entry from the AL Central Division, Kansas City’s success this season has been a major shock considering just last season the team had lost 106 games. At the beginning of this season, the Royals were given just a 13.1 percent chance to make the playoffs.

On Aug. 27, Kansas City had a 91.8 percent chance to make the playoffs as they were tied for the lead in the AL Central on Aug. 27. Since that date, however, the Royals have experienced two 7-game losing streaks. 9 wins and 16 losses since the 27th have left them with no chance of a division title, and tied with the Tigers for the 2nd Wild Card spot.

Kansas City’s success has come from a mixed bag of offense, defense, and pitching. Kansas City falls around No. 10 in MLB in all categories, making them a jack-of-all-trade but master-of-none kind of team. A lot of their success comes from star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt is having an MVP-caliber season contributing 30 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a .983 On-base-plus-slugging (OPS).

In addition to his mammoth offensive numbers, he is one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, giving him a great chance to win a gold glove at his position at the end of the season.

Biggest fallers

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has been a mainstay in the MLB postseason for the last 5 seasons (2019-2023), including a trip to the World Series in 2020. Unfortunately for the Rays, they find themselves on the outside looking in this season.

Preseason predictions gave them a 60.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, with a 20 percent chance to win their division. The Rays have hovered around .500 all season, with their chances steadily decreasing as the year dragged on.

Hitting has plagued the Rays all year, and is the reason they will not make the postseason. The Rays have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball, only above the Chicago White Sox, who are a loss away from losing the most games in a single season in baseball history.

Success over the last half-decade has come from homegrown talent and winning trades. This year, however, their luck ran out. Offensive pieces didn’t perform the way the organization thought they would, leaving a top-10 pitching staff with little to no run support.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves were the darling of all preseason predictions. Having won the World Series in 2021, and having two 100+ win seasons since then, this team was looking as dangerous as ever. The Braves had a 98.5 percent chance to make the playoffs with a gargantuan 25.3 percent chance to win the World Series.

This Braves team was supposed to be a juggernaut that would finally break through the NLDS for the first time since their World Series Championship. Their season, however, would be derailed by the great equalizer in baseball.

Injuries

Atlanta lost their two best players before June even began. One of the best pitchers in baseball, Spencer Strider, was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery after he tore the UCL in his pitching elbow. This would sideline Strider for the rest of the year with no chance of him contributing to their 2024 campaign.

If things couldn’t get worse, Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023 National League (NL) MVP, tore his left ACL which would shelve him for the rest of the year. Finally, Atlanta’s star third baseman, Austin Riley, broke his hand on Aug. 18, and will not return for this season.

These injuries have hindered the Braves’ season, but somehow, they’re still in the race. With 5 games left to play, the Braves are one game back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Despite nothing going their way all year, the Braves still have a chance.

One thing in baseball trumps all else, however, and that is once you make it to the dance, there’s always a chance, no matter how you got there.

All percentages referenced in this article were obtained from Fangraphs and are relevant as of Sept. 26, 2024.

Carter Brooks is a second-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email cjb7448@psu.edu.