MLB: Postseason seeding pros and cons

In the past two Major League Baseball (MLB) postseasons, upsets have been more than prevalent. Top seeds being toppled by Wild Card winners seems like the norm now. Is there an explanation for this, and how far back does this trend go?

In 2022, the MLB expanded its postseason to include a third Wild Card team in each league. This changed the playoff format drastically. Instead of a one-game Wild Card matchup, it would be a three-game series.

It pits the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds together, while the division winner with the worst record faces the final Wild Card team (No. 6 seed).

The change from a one-game to a three-game series has had some potentially unforeseen consequences. This change causes the top two seeds in each league to have multiple days off, which MLB teams are not accustomed to. This can be seen as both a blessing and a curse.

The time off allows a team to rest their players and reset their rotation before their first postseason games. On the other hand, when players are used to playing every day, these sudden days off can derail a player’s timing.

The last downside, if you believe in it, is the momentum a team has after playing in and winning a postseason series.

In the last two seasons, the top two seeds, those teams with a first-round bye, only won their first series played 3/8 times. This statistic means that there were five upsets in the Divisional Round alone.

Several factors could determine these outcomes, including injuries, player matchups and just whether players are hot or not.

“I thought we did everything possible during the delay, re-created things the best we could,” Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “...I don’t know that we could have done anything any better or been more thorough in what we did with our time off to get us ready to play, other than the fact that you know what, when you’re doing that, the adrenaline and playing for something that’s not there. You know what, that’s a big deal.”

Snitker said this following the Braves’ second consecutive postseason upset loss to the Wild Card Philadelphia Phillies in 2023. He is putting at least part of the blame on the fact his team was resting on its laurels, while the Phillies were fighting for their playoff lives.

Expanding our search further, from 2012-2021 (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season), the one seed from each league won their first playoff series when they were facing the winner of a one-game Wild Card round 10/20 times. 50 percent of the time, the best regular-season team lost before their postseason truly got started.

While you could point the blame at the Wild Card format, there are other factors to consider. On the other side of the bracket, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds matchup. During the same time frame, the higher-rated No. 2 seed only won 8/18 series played.

This number is below 50 percent, but very close to it, and points to the larger story that dominates the MLB playoffs.

The upset is king.

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the MLB postseason. Titans of the regular season can lose to a team that barely squeaked their way in and a Wild Card team can raise the World Series banner any given year.

All that matters is whether the players are hot or cold on any given day to lead their team to victory.

Carter Brooks is a second-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email cjb7448@psu.edu.