MLB free agency predictions

Dylan’s prediction: Yankees don’t re-sign Juan Soto, add a different 40-HR outfielder

It feels obvious for a Yankees fan to say that their prediction is re-signing Juan Soto to what The Athletic believes will be a 16-year, $622 million deal ($38.875 million per year).

While some teams can and should break the bank for Soto, the Yankees may be better suited looking elsewhere. According to Spotrac’s Team Tax Tracker, the Yankees had the third-highest payroll last year and were $77 million over the luxury tax threshold.

With a monster contract for Soto, the Yankees would be digging themselves into a deeper hole with their payroll, one that owner Hal Steinbrenner said isn’t sustainable. As painful as it is, re-signing Soto seems impossible.

This is why the Yankees should use the Soto money to improve at either third or second base (depending on where Jazz Chisholm plays), first base, pitching and even replacing Soto.

The Yankees don’t need to look any further than at home in the AL East to replace Soto, as Orioles’ outfielder Anthony Santander would be a perfect fit. The 29-year-old just had his first all-star season, slugging 44 home runs with a .814 OPS. Santander isn’t too shabby with the glove either, with only two errors this year.

The Athletic predicts Santander’s contract to be six years, $142 million, which is about $23.7 million annually. This gives the Yankees room to improve the entire lineup rather than their sole acquisition being Soto, especially after the team showed glaring issues during the World Series.

While the Yankees wouldn’t be able to make up for the loss of Soto with Santander alone, he would help them be able to do what Brad Pitt said as Billy Beane in “Moneyball”: “Recreate him in the aggregate.”

Adam’s prediction: Phillies add a new third baseman

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported Monday afternoon that the Philadelphia Phillies are willing to listen to trade offers for some key players on their roster, specifically, third baseman Alec Bohm.

Bohm is coming off a season where he posted a .280 batting average, 15 home runs and 97 runs batted in. He was even named the National League’s starting third baseman in the 2024 All-Star Game. So, why would the Phillies move him?

According to Spotrac, Bohm’s contract will expire after 2027. He’s due to be paid arbitration-level money for the next two seasons, and in all likelihood, will want an extension sooner rather than later. With rumors looming, Phillies’ President Dave Dombrowski has a decision to make.

Enter Alex Bregman. The Houston Astros’ third baseman is set to be a free agent this winter. He was one of 13 players to receive a $21.05 million qualifying offer on Monday, per ESPN’s Jorge Castillo.

So, why would he be a good fit in Philadelphia?

He has World Series experience. Bregman has played in the Fall Classic four times with Houston, winning twice, his most recent being against Philadelphia in 2022. The Phillies have a World Series or bust mentality and could use a player with title experience like Bregman’s.

He’s a player on Bohm’s level, if not better. Across 145 games in 2024, Bregman posted a .260 batting average with 26 home runs and 75 runs batted in. He’s been pretty consistent throughout his career, hitting double-digit home runs every season except two and at least 23 each season since 2022. What the Phillies lack most is consistent hitting, which could make Bregman a very nice fit in their lineup.

Lastly, he has connections with two Phillies players. The first and most notable, is pitcher Aaron Nola, his college roommate at Louisiana State University. The other is catcher Garrett Stubbs who played with Bregman in Houston from 2019-2021.

What the Phillies will do with Bohm is unknown, but Bregman would be a good replacement and someone Philadelphia should consider.

Tristan’s prediction: Nationals sign a starting pitcher and a bat

The Nationals have looked awful since their World Series win in 2019, but they have been rebuilding in an effort to make themselves a weapon in the NL once again.

They have made some noise in the league trading for CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore and Keibert Ruiz in 2022 who all start for them now.

With young guys such as Stone Garrett and James Wood also stepping up, the Nationals see themselves closer than people thought they were just a year ago.

With 71 wins each of the last two seasons, they could only be a couple of pieces away from a wild card appearance.

Jack Flaherty is a free-agent starting pitcher who posted a 13-7 record, with a solid 3.17 ERA and 194 strikeouts. He showed he is back from his shoulder surgery and the Nationals have the cap for his projected $100 million with their young team.

Flaherty would make a good veteran and would be a World Series-winning presence in a young pitching rotation with Gore and Josiah Gray and could solidify a triple-headed attack in Washington.

Flaherty is only 29 and could be there for a couple of years making a difference.

With this and a bat or two, they could be pressing for a playoff spot this season.

Carter’s prediction: The New York Mets spend $1 billion this offseason.

The New York Mets made a surprise run to the NLCS in 2024. Despite this, they were severely outclassed by the powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers and need to make major moves to be truly competitive.

With about $150 million in money coming off the books heading into the 2025 season, the Mets have plenty of money to spend.

The most important move this offseason for the Mets is bringing back Pete Alonso. He has been their franchise player since his debut in 2019, in which he won NL Rookie of the Year. His power numbers are superb, hitting 34+ home runs in each of the last four seasons.

Alonso will likely command $125 million over four to five years, although he may be able to secure a deal in the ballpark of $200 million if a bidding war ensues.

At worst, Juan Soto is a top-three hitter in baseball, and he is going to get paid like it. He has had more walks than strikeouts in each of the last six seasons, while still being a prolific power hitter.

Soto will be 26 at the start of the 2025 campaign, paving the way for a long-term deal. A contract of around $600 million over 14 years seems likely, although the Mets may be willing to offer a deal to rival Ohanti’s monster contract of $700 million.

While the Mets already have an elite pitcher in Kodai Senga, adding another ace-like Blake Snell could put a bow in their pitching staff. The 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner would make the Mets’ rotation truly scary.

Snell just opted out of his deal with the San Francisco Giants which would have paid him $31 million in 2025. Snell will likely seek a contract with a similar AAV over six to seven seasons.

The Mets have the will to win, and the deep pockets needed to add key pieces.

Dylan Sechrist is a third-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email dks5749@psu.edu.

Adam Pietrzak is a fourth-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email app5940@psu.edu.

Tristan Kunec is a fourth-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email tqk5432@psu.edu.

Carter Brooks is a second-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email cjb7448@psu.edu.