Istanbul braces for upcoming mayoral election with potential national implications

ISTANBUL — Huge flapping banners and loudspeakers blaring campaign jingles fill the air of Turkey’s largest city as anticipation builds for the upcoming municipal elections.

Voters throughout the country will go to the polls on March 31 to choose local leaders. But in Istanbul—the nation’s commercial, intellectual and creative hub, both the political and symbolic stakes are high and could have national implications.

The winner of a tight race for mayor between Murat Kurum and incumbent Ekrem İmamoğlu could be Istanbul’s bellwether for the future of Turkey.

İmamoğlu is committed to restoring the democratic principles and institutions that have lapsed under the authoritarian leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. İmamoğlu won the 2019 mayoral race for the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in a shock upset against Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP).

Another opposition win for İmamoğlu could signal waning support for Erdoğan, who has led the country since 2003. However, internal turmoil and declining support from other opposition parties for the CHP might serve Kurum’s bid for mayor.

Eylul Tosun, 23, is restaurant worker in the Fener district of Istanbul. Tosun said she plans on voting for İmamoğlu, but since Erdoğan was reelected president in 2023, she said she does not have optimism for change.

“After the general elections of last year, people have lost their confidence about the future of Turkey and it destroyed a sense of a rule of law,” Tosun said.

Beyond the ideological issues, more mundane matters -- improving infrastructure and reducing traffic congestion -- are central in this round of municipal elections for Istanbul.

Kurum announced in January his plans to alleviate heavy traffic by expanding highways, tripling Istanbul’s 203 miles of metro lines and more. For 18-year-old Halil Ibrahim, who will be voting for the first time, this issue is paramount.

“It’s important that [the AKP] are successful in some innovation and in the metro lines,” Ibrahim said. “The most important thing in Istanbul is convenient transportation.”

However, not everyone is embracing the two frontrunners.

For Yasin Avci, 25, the AKP has held control for the most of his life. Since İmamoğlu doesn’t have the backing of other opposition parties like he did in 2019, Avci said he thinks Kurum will likely win the upcoming election. But Avci won’t be voting for him.

Avci said he plans to vote for a smaller opposition candidate in the far-right, ultranationalist Zafer Party for its anti-immigration and anti-refugee views.

One challenge for the incumbent İmamoğlu is that he and the CHP leader Özgür Özel are facing internal turmoil after a series of controversial candidate nominations sparked disapproval from party members.

Tosun said this proves there may be hope for future general elections, but she is keeping herself out of politics for the time being.

“As a single woman in Turkey,” Tosun said, “The current situation shows things won’t get better soon.”