Group of Five races down the stretch

With one Group of Five conference champion guaranteed a spot in the expanded 12-team playoffs, conference races have never been as important as they are this season.

Here is how each conference race is shaping down the stretch, with just five weeks of regular season play remaining:

American Athletic Conference

Championship Matchup (if the season ended today)- No. 21 Army vs Navy

The annual Army-Navy rivalry game will only be the second-most important matchup featuring these teams if the results hold.

Both Army and Navy are led by experienced Senior quarterbacks in Bryson Daily and Blake Horvath, respectively, and revamped triple option offenses that have found great success thus far.

The Black Knights have ripped off a 7-0 undefeated start for the first time since 1945, and own the nation’s longest active win streak at 11 games.

Navy dropped from the rankings after a loss to No. 8 Notre Dame, but are currently unbeaten in conference play and in control of their own fate.

Still In Contention- Tulane, Memphis

Tulane suffered early season losses to Power 4 teams Oklahoma and Kansas State, but are currently undefeated in conference play while scoring an average of just over 46 points against their conference opponents. The Green Wave will need Navy to lose again to match them in the loss column and have an opportunity with the two teams squaring off Nov. 26th.

Memphis was defeated by the aforementioned Midshipmen in a Week 4 shootout, but are otherwise undefeated on the year. The Tigers will need two of their three unbeaten conference colleagues to slip up in order to sneak into the conference championship and have an upcoming chance to give Tulane their first conference loss during Rivalry Week.

Conference USA

Championship Matchup- Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State

Western Kentucky suffered through an early-season loss against Boston College and an annihilation at the hands of Alabama, but have traversed through their conference schedule with relative ease.

Sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 17 touchdowns and added five more on the ground for the Hilltoppers, who have won each of their conference matchups by at least three scores.

Jacksonville State, located in Alabama, struggled through their out-of-conference slate, losing three of their four games.

The Gamecocks flipped the script in conference play, winning their first four matchups against conference opponents, including a 31-21 victory over preseason favorites Liberty in their most recent game.

Still In Contention- Sam Houston, Liberty

In just their second year as an FBS program, Sam Houston has established itself as a Conference USA contender. At 7-2 overall and 4-1 in conference play, the Bearkats have a chance to leap Jacksonville State when the teams match up on Nov. 23rd.

The preseason conference favorites Liberty initially lived up to expectations, ripping off five straight wins to open the year. However, the Flames have faltered, losing two straight to conference opponents, including a shocking upset at the hands of at-the-time winless Kennesaw State.

The two losses have Liberty on the outside looking in and will need to win out and hope for some chaos to get squarely back in the race. That will be much easier said than done, with games against Western Kentucky and Sam Houston still remaining in their schedule.

Mid-American Conference

Championship Matchup- Western Michigan vs Ohio

The MAC will most likely not be winning the GO5 playoff spot, as no team in the conference has lost less than three games. In traditional MACtion fashion, this should make Tuesday and Wednesday night games chaotic.

Western Michigan lost two straight games to Big Ten schools to open the season. The stiff competition might have prepared the Broncos, as they are the only MAC team unbeaten in conference play.

Their four conference wins have all been high-scoring, offensive shootouts, displaying the ability to score on even the best MAC defenses. On the flip side, shootouts mean struggles on defense, and boy has Western Michigan struggled. Their 33.8 points allowed per game is the bottom 20 mark in the nation. The chaos potential for Western Michigan is very high.

Ohio is matched with two other teams (who we’ll get into later) with a 3-1 conference record. However, because their overall record of 5-3 is the best of the three, they would win the tiebreaker should the season end today (their sole conference loss was to one of the other 3-1 teams, but tiebreakers get complex when three or more teams are involved.)

Still In Contention- Bowling Green, Miami (Ohio), the four teams with a 2-2 conference record

It would be easier to say who is out of contention for the MAC crown (sorry Kent State.)

Bowling Green and Miami (Ohio) both are locked with 3-1 conference records, but Miami (Ohio) boasts a win against Ohio on its resume, which could be crucial for tiebreakers down the road.

However, the MAC is notoriously known for its unpredictability. Northern Illinois shocked a top-10 Notre Dame team earlier in the year but is just 1-3 in conference play. The aforementioned Broncos got mauled the first two weeks of the season by a combined score of 84-14, yet are the sole team with a zero in the conference loss column.

Needless to say: Until the math says so, no one is truly eliminated from MAC contention this season.

Mountain West

Championship Matchup- No. 15 Boise State vs Colorado State

Boise State has emerged as the favorite to land the GO5 playoff spot. Led by Heisman-contending running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos have ripped off a 6-1 opening to the season, with their one loss coming in a game in which they arguably outplayed No. 1 Oregon.

Boise State also just passed their toughest remaining test of the season, defeating former second-place MW team UNLV last weekend. ESPN’s FPI now gives the Broncos an over 50% chance to win the remainder of their games, tops in the nation.

Colorado State lost to Power 4 schools Texas and rival Colorado (and former Power 4 school Oregon State,) but has picked up three solid, albeit unimpressive, wins against conference foes to sit with Boise State atop the standings.

Still In Contention- San Diego State, Fresno State, UNLV

San Diego State is the third and final team unblemished in the conference loss column. However, the Aztecs have only played two conference matchups and have a poor 3-4 overall record. Chances are the Aztecs will fade from this race sooner rather than later.

Fresno State’s title hopes took a shot after getting blown out by UNLV, a game that could have major tiebreaker implications down the road. They narrowly scraped by bottom-feeders Nevada, but that game is sandwiched between obliterations of New Mexico and San Jose State.

Their 3-1 conference record keeps them in contention, and they have a chance to improve their positioning with a future matchup against Colorado State.

Had this article been written a week ago, UNLV would have been the team squaring off against Boise State in the championship. However, the regular season meeting between the two teams did not play out in the Rebels' favor, as a narrow 29-24 loss bumped them down a few rungs in the standings.

Aside from that and a narrow overtime defeat to Power 4 opponent Syracuse, UNLV has been perfect on the year and looked like the second-best team in the conference for most of it. However, they will have to hope for a few teams above them to slip up to get back in the championship picture.

Sun Belt Conference

Championship Matchup- Old Dominion vs Louisiana

One of the few conferences to still have divisions within, the Sun Belt championship will continue to feature the East champion (currently Old Dominion) and the West champion (Louisiana.)

At 7-1 on the year and 4-0 in conference play, Louisiana would be the favorite in the hypothetical matchup, and a Sun Belt ring could put the Ragin’ Cajuns in play for the GO5 playoff spot.

Their resume includes a win over Power 4 opponent Wake Forest, and have taken care of business (albeit with some close finishes) against conference opponents.

Old Dominion is coming off a 47-19 shellacking of Georgia Southern in which they were underdogs coming in. The win allowed the Monarchs to jump to the top of the East division despite having a worse overall record than Georgia Southern.

Still In Contention- Georgia Southern, James Madison (East), Arkansas State, South Alabama, Louisiana-Monroe (West)

Despite the upset loss to Old Dominion, Georgia Southern is still in a position to capitalize should they slip.

The Eagles hung 45 points in a competitive loss against Boise State and defeated strong Sun Belt opponents in James Madison and Marshall. Their matchup at South Alabama next Saturday is the toughest test remaining on their schedule.

Conference play has not gone as hoped for James Madison, with losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern severely damaging their championship aspirations.

However, the Dukes have shown they have another gear. In a two-game stretch in September, they scored a combined 133 points, including 70 in a win over Power 4 opponent UNC.

Although they are not in control of their own fate, James Madison is not out of the race should they rediscover their offense.

The three West teams listed above are all knotted at 3-1 in conference play.

Arkansas State has a win over South Alabama but has a very difficult stretch of games to close out the season, with matchups against Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe and Old Dominion remaining on their schedule.

Speaking of offensive explosions in the Sun Belt, South Alabama dropped an unbelievable 87 points against FCS Northwestern State. That total is the most scored by an FBS team in 33 years, and the Jaguars did so despite the fourth quarter being shortened to six minutes.

Despite the aforementioned loss to Arkansas State, a win over Louisiana-Monroe last weekend will help South Alabama in potential tie-breaking scenarios.

It might be a difficult end to the season for Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks still have to play Marshall, Arkansas State and Louisiana, as well as travel to Auburn for an out-of-conference matchup.

Alex Perez is a third-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email app5877@psu.edu.