Grammy Nomination Predictions

With the Grammy Nominations on their way, Sophia D’Ovidio and Jack Freiser give their final predictions of the major four categories before the Recording Academy comes out with their list.

Album of the Year

Album of the Year is awarded to the artist, songwriter, producer, recording engineer and master engineer for the album.

Front Runners:

“Midnights”- Taylor Swift

“SOS”- SZA

“GUTS”- Olivia Rodrigo

These three albums will likely get a nod from the Recording Academy and have the best chances to win.

Swift could become the first person to win four Albums of the Year awards. SZA could be the first black woman to take home this award since 1999. Rodrigo could snag this award with just her sophomore album.

The odds of these three albums not having an advantage to take home the trophy are extremely low.

Next three in:

“The Album”- boygenius

“But Here We Are”- Foo Fighters

“One Thing At A Time”- Morgan Wallen

Foo Fighters and boygenius may not have the commercial success of the first three albums listed, but their critical success should put them in a comfortable shot for a nomination.

Wallen saw commercial success comparable to the three frontrunners, but his genre, controversy and lack of critical acclaim could taint his chances.

On the cusp:

“Utopia”- Travis Scott

“Endless Summer Vacation”- Miley Cyrus

“Did You Know There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd”- Lana Del Rey

“Barbie: The Album”- Mark Ronson (various artists)

With the Grammys returning to only eight nominees per category instead of ten, these albums could snag a spot, but seeing them miss out won’t be shocking.

“Barbie” was the year's most prominent movie, but its soundtrack will likely succeed in other categories. Del Rey, Scott and Cyrus have not seen much love from the Academy, so none feel like a sure bet.

Close but no:

“Zach Bryan”- Zach Bryan

“Stick Season”- Noah Kahan

“Her Loss”- Drake and 21 Savage

“Only the Young”- Bruce Springsteen

“Heroes & Villains”- Metro Boomin

“Being Funny in a Foreign Language”- The 1975

These probably won’t get a nomination, but stranger things have happened.

Bryan put out a far superior country album, but Wallen’s commercial dominance will likely box Bryan’s self-titled album out. Kahan’s folk-indie style could also fall victim to Wallen or boygenius’s better odds.

“Her Loss” and “Heroes & Villains” will likely miss out due to a genre bias.

The 1975 likely has too much controversy and not enough commercial appeal.

Springsteen could land a legacy nomination, but the Foo Fighters have that somewhat covered.

Song of the Year:

Song of the Year is awarded to the songwriters who actually wrote the lyrics or melody.

Front Runners:

“Anti-Hero”- Taylor Swift

“What Was I Made For”- Billie Eilish

“Kill Bill”- SZA

Considering it’s the songwriting award, it already feels like a battle between Swift and Eilish.

“Anti-Hero” and “Kill Bill” dominated the charts. “What Was I Made For” is a stunning ballad from Eilish.

It would be shocking not to see these songs in this category and one of these artists not accepting the award.

Next three in:

“Flowers”- Miley Cyrus

“vampire”- Olivia Rodrigo

“Paint the Town Red”- Doja Cat

All three of these songs were dominant this year.

They feel just as big locks as the previous three. However, Doja Cat’s constant controversy, Cyrus’s previous snubs and Rodrigo’s so-so commercial performance make them less sure.

Regardless, there is confidence in these songs getting a nomination and winning this award.

On the cusp:

“Not Strong Enough”- boygenius

“Last Night”- Morgan Wallen

“I Remember Everything”- Zach Bryan (featuring Kacey Musgraves)

“Dance The Night”- Dua Lipa

“Last Night” and “Dance the Night” can boast commercial triumph but could get edged out. Especially considering Eilish’s entry and “Dance The Night” share the same soundtrack.

If the Recording Academy truly awards songwriting, Bryan and boygenius should be no-brainer nominees.

Close, but no:

“Rescued”- Foo Fighters

“A&W”- Lana Del Rey

“Lift Me Up”- Rihanna

“All My Life”- Lil Durk and J. Cole

“Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2”- PinkPanthress featuring Ice Spice

Except for “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2,” none of these songs can compete commercially with the aforementioned songs.

However, Rihanna and Del Rey could be dark horse nominees with the hype surrounding their well-respected names.

Record of the Year:

Record of the Year is awarded to the performing artist, producer, sound engineer and/or mixer of the track.

Front Runners:

“Anti-Hero”- Taylor Swift

“Kill Bill”- SZA

“Flowers”- Miley Cyrus

If the pattern isn’t clear, Swift and SZA are the Grammy’s this year.

Cyrus should receive her first significant nomination and have a shot at the trophy with “Flowers” in this category.

All three songs have stellar production, and that, along with the commercial dominance, makes these songs front-runners.

Next three in:

“Paint the Town Red”- Doja Cat

“Not Strong Enough”- boygenius

“vampire”- Olivia Rodrigo

It’s hard to imagine any of these songs don’t make the cut.

It’s the same reason that these songs aren’t locked for Song of the Year that brings the same insecurities in this category as well, even if the award is for production rather than songwriting.
On the cusp:

“Dance the Night”- Dua Lipa

“Creepin”- Metro Boomin

“What Was I Made For”- Billie Eilish

“Last Night”- Morgan Wallen

Can the “Barbie” soundtrack snag both of the remaining two slots? Will only one sneak in, or will they split the Academy votes and both lose?

Will Wallen’s control of the entire country genre also ensure a nomination here?

Can the Grammys acknowledge Metro Boomin’s impact as a producer and “Creepin’s” commercial success?

The Grammys return to categories with only 8 slots, making the final two nominations here feel like it could be any artist's chance.

Close, but no:

“Fast Car”- Luke Combs

“Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2”- Pinkpanthress featuring Ice Spice

“Lift Me Up”- Rihanna

“A&W”- Lana Del Rey

“Fast Car” and “Boy’s a Liar Pt. 2” were juggernauts on the charts this year. That could be enough to let them sneak into this category.

Rihanna’s return to music or reigning producer of the year Jack Antonoff’s work on “A&W” could sneak these tracks onto the ballot.

Best New Artist:

Best New Artist is awarded to a new artist who releases during the eligibility year the first recording, which establishes the public identity of the artist.

Front Runners:

Ice Spice

Renee Rapp

Noah Kahan

It’s hard to imagine a world where Ice Spice doesn’t win this award, but Rapp and Kahan are also extremely plausible winners.

Ice Spice has chart toppers, collaborations with titans of the industry such as Swift and Nicki Minaj, and is on a hot streak that can’t seem to stop.

Kahan has dominated the indie/folk music scene. Collaborations with Bryan, Musgraves, Lizzie McAlpine and Hoizer are brilliant campaigning that should promise him a spot on this list.

Rapp is an actual dual threat, and if her streaming numbers and stellar vocals can’t get the Academy’s attention, her bolstering acting career will turn enough heads to be a surefire bet.

Next three in:

Gracie Abrams

Jelly Roll

Peso Pluma

All three of these artists have bright futures, especially considering the dominance each has had in their genre.

Pluma’s dominance in the booming Latin genre and Jelly Roll's obscure transition from rap to country while finding success are both compelling stories.

Abrams being an opener at “The Eras Tour,” collaborations with Aaron Dessner and having the father she does is undoubtedly enough to guarantee a nomination and maybe enough for a win.

On the cusp:

Lizzie McAlpine

Tate McCrae

Amaare

PinkPanthress

All names should make this list with their breakout work over the year.

It feels wrong that, most likely, two of these artists won’t receive a nod from the academy in this category, but their careers are and will continue to boom regardless.

Close, but no:

SexxyRed

Rema

JVKE

The War and Treaty

All these artists have seen mainstream love with collaborations and popularity on platforms such as TikTok.

In a less competitive year, they could secure a nomination, but in this year, a nomination could happen but in no way feel like a secure bet.

Sophia D’Ovidio is a third-year majoring in digital and print journalism. To contact her, email sgd5184@psu.edu.

Jack Freiser is a fourth-year majoring in telecommunications. To contact him, email jef5641@psu.edu.