Fantasy Football, Start Em or Sit Em

Is that guy who is projected for 15 points actually going to score eight? Vise-versa? Here’s what I think with fantasy football playoffs on the horizon.

Start Em’ - Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

Opponent - Detroit Lions

Josh Jacobs has been a fantastic player in fantasy so far this season, but against a Lions defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, you would think that he would struggle.

I’m here to tell you that he won’t!

Despite the seemingly poor matchup, there are multiple reasons for optimism. Especially in PPR leagues, his abilities as a dual-threat back add tremendous value, particularly in the passing game.

Last week versus the Dolphins, although he only was able to tally 43 rushing yards, he managed 74 receiving yards on four catches. He did break through on the ground for a touchdown and ended the game with 21.70 fantasy points.

He’ll contribute even if he doesn’t get it going in the run game.

Detroit will also be without their stud linebacker Alex Anzalone, who suffered a broken forearm, potentially creating more running room for Jacobs. He has a strong track record against Detroit, as he recorded 95 rushing yards in their last meeting.

Jacobs has an extremely high floor for a running back and you shouldn’t even consider removing him from your starting lineup even if the matchup is not favorable at first glance.

Start Em’ - Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Opponent - Buffalo Bills

The Bills are riding high coming off of their crushing of the 49ers. Even so, one player who stands out as a strong fantasy start is Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua.

Similarly to Jacobs, the high floor for Nacua is one of the major reasons to put him in your lineup. Buffalo’s defense has been good against wide receivers this season, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.

Despite that, Nacua’s involvement in the Rams’ offense makes him a reliable option, even if Cooper Kupp has been the face of the aerial attack for some time.

He consistently garners a large target share, which helps offset the supposed difficult matchups. Earlier in this season, the Rams faced another good pass defense, the Dolphins, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

In that game, Nacua still hauled in nine catches for 98 yards on 14 targets. He can produce even in subpar situations.

Buffalo’s explosive offense likely will force the Rams to play from behind, keeping Matthew Stafford in pass mode. There should be plenty of opportunities for him, giving fantasy managers the utmost confidence in him going into this game.

Sit Em’ - Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Opponent - Atlanta Falcons

Aaron Jones is an example of a more risky fantasy play this week. There are several reasons why you might want to consider keeping him glued to your bench.

In last week’s game, Jones posted a season-low 22 total rushing yards on just five touches against Arizona. This also marked his second straight game in which he lost a fumble.

While a receiving touchdown late in the game helped to salvage some points and give him a reasonable final total of 9.8 points, it was otherwise a rough outing following his strong Week 12 performance against Chicago in which he accumulated 106 yards on the ground.

This week, the matchup doesn’t look much prettier. Jones faces a tough Atlanta defense that excels at preventing the run. Although the Falcons possess a less-than-stellar pass rush, their run defense has actually been quite solid, holding opposing running back groups to 119 total yards per game.

Additionally, Atlanta has only allowed two touchdowns to running backs in their last four games, so it’s pretty unlikely that Jones will find the end zone to make up for another projected low-yardage performance. He doesn’t have the receiving prowess at this point to offset that lack of yardage, either.

Jones’ chances of delivering a strong fantasy performance this week are slim. If you have them at your disposal, it’s best to explore other options for your lineup.

Sit Em’ - Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Opponent - New York Jets

Advising someone to sit Tyreek Hill at this point last year would have been asinine. Nonetheless, he has simply not been the same guy in 2024, as he’s battled injury and a revolving door of quarterbacks en route to 654 receiving yards and four touchdowns which seems measly for a player of Hill’s caliber.

Even with Tua Tagovailoa healthy, Hill has been hit-or-miss. Last week, he did score a touchdown, but it was in garbage time and the pass was intended for tight end Jonnu Smith, who couldn’t reel it in, leaving Hill the beneficiary of a friendly tip.

Hill has averaged under seven targets per game and is constantly double-teamed. Guys like the aforementioned Smith, or fellow receiver Jaylen Waddle, have been the beneficiaries of this. The Dolphins have also gone run-heavy recently with Devon Achane.

The Jets are one of the top teams in the league in terms of preventing damage in the air. I expect the Dolphins to once again lean on Achane, leaving Hill less of a threat. I would keep the speedster on the pine in Week 14.

Both of the “Sit-em’” choices are currently on my fantasy squad. Hopefully, they prove me wrong, but if all goes to plan, my picks will help to propel you into the fantasy playoffs.

Dominick Pizzelanti is a second-year student dual majoring in broadcast journalism and Spanish. To contact him, email dqp5565@psu.edu.