CommRadio football insiders breakdown Penn State in 2023

After a long wait, Penn State finally returns to the gridiron as it takes on West Virginia on Saturday night.

The Nittany Lions finished 2022 with an 11-2 record, capped off by a 35-21 victory over Utah in the Rose Bowl.

Our CommRadio Insiders give their predictions on the blue and white’s upcoming campaign.

Record prediction:

Alex Rocco: 11-1 loss to Ohio State

Penn State has more hype around it entering 2023 than almost any other team in the nation. Many experts have claimed this season will be the first time the Nittany Lions make the playoffs since it was established nine years ago.

The blue and white will begin the campaign with six straight wins, but not without scares against Big Ten west foes Illinois and Iowa.

The real test for James Franklin’s squad comes when they travel to Columbus to square off against Ohio State. The matchup could very well be between two undefeated and top-10 programs, but the home-field advantage favors the Buckeyes, and they come out on top in this contest.

Following the loss against Ohio State, the Nittany Lions rebounded in a big way, taking down Indiana and Maryland before welcoming another top-10 program into town. The matchup against Michigan will be Drew Allar’s biggest test in his first season as a starter, and he helps lead his team to a close victory over the maize and blue. This sets up a three-team race for first in the Big Ten, with Ohio State playing Michigan just two weeks later.

Penn State closes the season in fashion with wins over Rutgers and Michigan State, giving it an 11-1 record and its first playoff appearance in program history.

Matt Scalzo: 12-0

There’s a lot of hype around this Penn State team. The Nittany Lions have a loaded defense along with weapons and a stout offensive line to help your potential game-changing quarterback.

The question is always can the blue and white beat the top dogs, Michigan and Ohio State? If they get past one, they can get past both.

When you look at the offense, there’s no reason not to be excited. Featured in the backfield is a two-headed monster in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton to help take the load of the quarterback.

While question marks remain under center, the likelihood is that it will be Drew Allar, who is the best quarterback prospect since the likes of Christain Hackenberg. However, this will be his first test as the starter, but he doesn’t have to do it all by himself. An elite defense on the back end can give you the confidence to push the ball down the field to Keandre Lambert-Smith and Harrison Wallace.

Looking at the schedule, all the eyes are going to point to the meeting at the Horseshoe in late October. This is one of the years where Ohio State isn’t the team to beat. The Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes match up so well that it could go either way.

The biggest matchup of the season happens in Happy Valley on November 11 between Penn State and Michigan. The Wolverines have proven they are the team to beat in the Big Ten with back-to-back College Football Playoff Appearances. The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium will be electric, and like the last meeting there, it will be close, with Penn State edging out the maize and blue.

Mike Bolger: 11-1 loss to Michigan

With Drew Allar at the helm, an offense with a balanced run-to-pass ratio and a star-filled defense, the Nittany Lions breeze through their first six games without any hiccups.

Then the real test comes against Ohio State in the Horseshoe, where the super sophomore running back duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen flash their talents to take home a stunning victory. 9-0, Penn State takes on Michigan on Fox Noon Kickoff, where the Wolverines pick apart the Nittany Lions’ defense from top to bottom with their run game.

The blue and white finish the season with 11 wins, ranked as a top-10 team in the country, but stand outside the playoffs and Big Ten Championship. James Franklin flies his team to an Orange Bowl victory with much to be desired for 2024 as fans anticipate a playoff run.

Amanda Vogt: 11-1 loss to Ohio State

In the past two seasons, Penn State has been unable to get the edge over foes Michigan and Ohio State. 2023 will be the Nittany Lions’ last chance to attempt and knock off both opponents in the regular season before the Big Ten expands.

The first six games of the season shouldn’t pose much of a threat, but a road game against Ohio State could jeopardize a potential undefeated record.

The following two games against Indiana and Maryland will provide the unit a chance to build up to its Big Noon Kickoff matchup against the Wolverines.

The stripe-out crowd will add an extra layer to what the maize and blue will face in Happy Valley. A quality win against Michigan will only increase confidence heading into the last two games of the season.

The Big Ten East division will be crowded at the top which makes the Nittany Lions’ games against the Buckeyes and Wolverines only that much more important when decisions for the four CFP spots are determined.

Justin Ciavolella: 10-2 losses to Ohio State and Michigan

I can see Penn State as an 11-win team or even a 12-win team, but on the other hand, there is one question that needs to be answered before I can confidently put that on paper: What does Penn State have at quarterback?

Right now, the answer is a combined 10 appearances with 35 completions on 60 attempts for 344 yards and four touchdowns through the air to go along with 52 yards and one score on the ground. All of those stats belong to Drew Allar, with fellow scholarship quarterbacks Beau Pribula and Jaxon Smolik having not appeared at the collegiate level.

Allar and Pribula have competed in the offseason, with neither being named the starting quarterback up to this point. Regardless of who gets the call, the inexperience in big moments makes it hard for me to see the Nittany Lions taking down Michigan or Ohio State.

The spotlight will be on one of those second-year quarterbacks right out of the gate against West Virginia on primetime television, and that should tell everyone a lot about what James Franklin, Mike Yurcich and company have at quarterback.

For now, I can’t see Penn State getting past the gauntlet of the Big Ten, but in a few weeks, I’ll be more than willing to change my prediction if one of those two signal callers really proves themselves.

Emma Holtz: 11-1 loss to Michigan

“Will Penn State beat Michigan & Ohio State this year?” The age-old question has never had more Penn State fans and analysts talking as the blue and white prepare to kick off the 2023 season.

Traveling will not play a major factor early on, as three of the first four games will be played in Happy Valley. By the time the Nittany Lions travel to Columbus to face Ohio State, they will have two-night games under their belts, six wins to their name and recovery time following the Homecoming game versus UMass on Oct. 14.

This can be considered a bold prediction, but the blue and white will step into The Shoe and stun the Buckeyes in a close but clear victory.

By this point, any lingering questions regarding depth in the wide receiver, left guard and defensive tackle rooms should be cleared, leaving Penn State with a solidified scheme identity.

The Buckeyes may still be strapped with quarterback questions between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown, which would be the opening that Penn State needs to secure a crucial win in 2023. Following matchups versus Indiana and Maryland will add to their win column.

However, Week 11 versus Michigan in the annual Stripe Out game will be where Penn State falls short of an undefeated season. Michigan’s returning running back duo, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, rushed a combined 339 yards versus Penn State last season, which will be a major topic of discussion in the film room for the defensive line.

A playoff run may be in the picture if Penn State can capitalize on its increased position and leadership depth.

Bold prediction:

Alex Rocco: Dani Dennis-Sutton leads Penn State in sacks

Dani Dennis-Sutton was the crown jewel of Penn State’s star-studded 2022 class, as he was ranked as a five-star prospect and the No. 28 player in the nation.

Dennis-Sutton saw the field early and often last season, burning his redshirt by October.

He appeared in all 13 games for the Nittany Lions, and he recorded 17 tackles, three sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, three quarterback hurries, one interception and a pass breakup.

The Millsboro, Delaware, native tied for fifth on the team in sacks, but when watching him rush the passer, it was evident he struggled with his first step and pad level when he engaged with blockers.

However, Dennis-Sutton worked on his technique over the offseason, and when the Blue-White Game rolled around in April, he looked like a brand-new player.

The second-year defensive end tallied two sacks, and after the spring game, James Franklin said he looked “unblockable.”

Despite sharing reps with star pass rushers Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson, 2023 looks to be the year Dennis-Sutton breaks out.

Mike Bolger: Tyler Warren outperforms Theo Johnson and third wide receiver production.

From the Blue and White game, through training camp and now to the first game of the season, James Franklin has been on the hunt for a wide receiver to fill the slot role.

While the search for Drew Allar’s third wide receiver has been left open, Franklin has stated multiple times that a two-tight end set is always an option.

If that holds, Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren could be seeing valuable playing time throughout the campaign. As the defense’s attention is drawn to Johnson’s athleticism, Warren is left as an afterthought in the minds of opposing defenses.

This could be an opportunity for Warren to get favorable matchups, but also become a reliable target for Allar and a top-three weapon on the offense.

Amanda Vogt: Both quarterbacks will be utilized in Penn State’s offensive scheme.

In Tuesday’s press conference, Franklin noted how Beau Pribula has a “style” more like a running playmaker out of the pocket that Drew Allar does not possess. If Allar is named the starter, it might make sense to include a special package to create a diversion and change of pace.

Possibly including a wild-cat situation could even feature both QBs on the field at one time for a creative trick play. With offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich up in the booth calling plays, it would allow him to get a better scope of the defensive coverage and potentially call a game-altering play.

Looking back to how the Saints ran their offense with Drew Brees under center, they featured Taysom Hill, who provided the spark they needed.

Franklin said he felt confident that he could win with anyone in Penn State’s quarterback room, and designing a special package might seem bold, but could be the change of pace that ignites the Nittany Lions.

Justin Ciavolella: Kaytron Allen Outrushes Nicholas Singleton

Last season, Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton became the first freshman duo in Big Ten history to rush for over 700 yards apiece. The latter of the two led the way with 1,061 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, becoming the 16th Nittany Lion to rush for over 1,000 yards and the first since Saquon Barkley in 2015.

The former of the two, Allen, ended his freshman campaign with 867 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns while carrying the ball 11 more times than his partner in the backfield. The Virginia native added 20 receptions for 188 yards and one touchdown to go along with 37 return yards to finish with 1,092 all-purpose yards.

Although there has been no indication of either of the now sophomore running backs earning the majority of the workload, another option arrived in the offseason in the way of redshirt senior Trey Potts, who rushed for 471 yards on 101 carries with Minnesota a season ago.

Of the three options that will all conceivably take snaps with the first team offense, Allen’s stature at 222 pounds, which increased from 201 in the offseason, and downhill running ability should be favorable as a mix-and-match with an offense that seems poised to be more spread with Drew Allar or Beau Pribula under center.

At the end of the day, it does not matter which of Allen, Singleton and Potts lead the room, all of them have to be ready to go to assist one of two second-year quarterbacks in driving the offense downfield.

Matt Scalzo: Dante Cephas Becomes Clear-Cut WR3

It’s been established who the top two wide receivers are, Keandre Lambert-Smith and Harrison Wallace, rightfully, as they are the best returning options. However, they have never been in a role where they are relied upon heavily.

Lambert-Smith is expected to be the top receiver in the room and is coming off a 2022 where he hauled in 24 catches with 389 yards and four touchdowns, while Wallace snagged 19 receptions for 273 yards and a touchdown.

One of the most prominent question marks for Penn State has been at wide receiver, and who is going to be the third in the fold?

Yes, James Franklin loves to use the two tight end sets, and will lean on Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren, but someone needs to emerge on those third and long situations. Who better than the highly sought-after transfer, Dante Cephas?

After spending the last four seasons at Kent State, Cephas went into the portal and was one of the top receivers available. He was one of Penn State’s top targets and quickly jumped on the two-time First-Team All-MAC honoree.

In 2022, Cephas totaled 48 catches for 744 yards and three touchdowns in nine games. His breakout year came in 2021, when he posted 82 grabs with 1240 yards for 13 touchdowns. It was the first time since 1997 that a Kent State receiver topped over 1,000 yards.

With a lot of receivers in flux, a talented player in Cephas can only stay quiet for so long.

Emma Holtz: Malick Meiga Will Be a Starting Wideout

A special teams weapon last season, Malick Meiga’s impact in the wide receiver room will be felt much earlier than expected.

The reigning John Bruno Memorial Award winner totaled four tackles and a forced fumble in 12 games last season, which opened a gateway for Meiga to throw his hat in the ring for contending wide receiver slots.

His lead-by-example leadership style in the locker room earned him a captain role and the respect of a wide receiver room still deciphering its future following the departures of Mitchell Tinsley and Parker Washington.

Meiga’s six career receptions in two seasons for 97 yards limit his in-game experience, but this is precisely the fuel he will utilize to prove himself alongside veteran starter KeAndre Lambert-Smith and hopefuls Dante Cephas, Malik McClain, Harrison Wallace and Omari Evans.

Lambert-Smith and Meiga have a longstanding relationship and continually bond, including going to get pedicures as a team before Game Day.

Expect Meiga to take on an increased role as a wide receiver and be in the conversation regularly for in-game reps.

X-factor:

Alex Rocco: Johnny Dixon

Nobody benefited more than cornerback Johnny Dixon playing under then-first-year defensive coordinator Manny Diaz in 2022.

Diaz’s system of pressuring the quarterback and having the cornerbacks play in man coverage was extremely similar to the system in which Dixon played at South Carolina before he transferred to Penn State in 2021.

While Joey Porter Jr. and Kalen King received national praise for their performances last year, it was actually Dixon who thrived the most.

According to PFF, opposing quarterbacks completed just 40% of their passes when targeting Dixon, which was the lowest on the team.

Along with his shutdown coverage on the outside, the Tampa, Florida, native displayed a unique ability to rush the passer in 2022. After not recording a sack and just two quarterback pressures in his first three seasons at the collegiate level, Dixon broke out last year, tallying three sacks and five quarterback pressures.

Dixon is Penn State’s oldest cornerback, and the young guys will help develop their games from his tutelage.

Mike Bolger: Olumuyiwa Fashanu

A projected first-round pick in the 2023 draft, Walter Camp second-team All-American and second-team All-Big Ten honors return to Happy Valley with unfinished business.

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, a redshirt junior from Maryland, burst onto the scene in 2022 after appearing in nine games across his first two seasons. In his first season as a starter at left tackle, Fashanu gave up one hit and no sacks on 281 pass-blocking snaps while tasked with guarding Sean Clifford’s blindside.

The 20-year-old will now be faced with guarding a younger and more mobile quarterback’s vulnerable side as he chases a Big Ten and National Championship. The hunger and smoothness in pass protection could not only make him one of the best in the Big Ten but also the entire country as he paves the way for the offense.

Amanda Vogt: Abdul Carter

As a true freshman, the linebacker had 6.5 sacks in 13 appearances with six starts. Carter somewhat resembles the type of player that former Nittany Lion turned Dallas Cowboy, Micah Parsons exhibited during his time in the blue and white — oh, and wearing number 11 helps too.

The sophomore can quickly bypass the line of scrimmage and put pressure on the quarterback. His awareness put him at the top of team statistics in nearly every category.

An offseason of preparation and experience will only benefit Carter as he enters his second year with the Nittany Lions. As a defensive x-factor, the linebacker will be a difference maker in returning possession to the offense.

Justin Ciavolella: J.B. Nelson

Projected starting left guard Landon Tengwall medically retired from football just three days before the opener. While the loss of Tengwall hurts Penn State not just in ability, but also in leadership, the Nittany Lions have their best offensive line depth in years.

That depth starts with J.B. Nelson, who appeared across four games a year ago after transferring from Lackawanna Community College, and is the heir apparent to Tengwall. Vega Ioane and Anthony Donkoh also earned the praise of their head coach.

Nelson, who stands at 6-foot-5 and 334 pounds, is vital to the success of Penn State’s run game, which saw itself increase its production from 1743 in 2021 to 2569 yards last year.

More important for Nelson is helping protect the blindside of Allar or Pribula. Phil Trautwein’s group only allowed 21 sacks last season, but without a veteran presence under center, the pressure has to stay away from the backfield for the blue and white to have success.

Matt Scalzo: The Defensive Line

It’s hard to pick one singular player on this defensive line to be the x-factor because every single one of them can make an impact. With nearly every player returning, plus plenty of depth, there are players up and down the depth chart that can come in at any point.

Off the edge are Chop Robinson and Adisa Issac, both of whom are returners and leaders in the trenches. Robinson came over from Maryland last season and instantly provided a spark accumulating five sacks and 10 tackles for a loss, while Issac was healthy for the first time for a full season and notched four sacks with a team-high 11 tackles for a loss.

Of the defensive tackles, there are two that stand out. Hakeem Beamon, Dvon Ellies and Cozziah Izzard. Beamon flew under the radar, recording six tackles for a loss and batted multiple passes, while Ellies is expected to fill the run-stuffing void left by PJ Mustipher.

Depth pieces on the ends such as former five-star Dani Dennis-Sutton, along with the rotational piece in Amin Vanover.

Then up the middle with sophomore Zane Durant and Jordan van den Berg, who looks to translate his success in the weight room to the field, as well as Cozziah Izzard, who is looking primed to get back on the field.

Franklin feels he has great depth on the line, and to succeed in the Big Ten, it is paramount to have that in the trenches. Penn State has it on both sides specifically on defense.

Emma Holtz: Malick Meiga

In addition to his potential to excel at wideout this season, Meiga’s X-factor lies in his leadership in the locker room.

The junior captain from Saint Jerome, Québec, has mentioned that he lets his production and work at practice do the talking for him to mentor younger players on the Nittany Lions’ roster.

This approach diverges from the practices of previous captains like former quarterback Sean Clifford. While there is no right or wrong approach to leadership, Meiga’s style spawns from a hunger to prove himself through playmaking rather than pep talks.

This action-over-articulation style could have a major trickle-down effect for future Nittany Lions donning the blue and white. Meiga’s potential to become a starting wideout would create lucrative opportunities for Penn State this season.

Alex Rocco is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email alex.rocco1702@gmail.com.

Justin Ciavolella is a third-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email jtc5751@psu.edu.

Amanda Vogt is a second-year majoring in Broadcast Journalism. To contact her, email amandaevogt@gmail.com

Matt Scalzo is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email matt.scalzo8@gmail.com or mms7477@psu.edu.

Micheal Bolger is a third-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, please email mpb6233@psu.edu.

Emma Holtz is a fourth-year majoring in public relations. To contact her, email emma.holtz01@gmail.com