ALCS Preview

The Texas Rangers will face off against the Houston Astros in the ALCS with Game 1 starting at 8:15 on Sunday, Oct 15.

The Rangers are 5-0 in the playoffs this year and are coming off a dominating 7-1 win to sweep the Baltimore Orioles. Max Scherzer has been injured but has a chance to return to the mound for Game 1 in Houston.

Ranger’s manager Bruce Bochy said he was “really encouraged” about his most recent simulated game on Wednesday.

The Rangers’ postseason success story has been about their bats stepping up when it matters most. They are averaging 6.4 runs per game as a team so far these playoffs, and are also leading in BABIP (.349 batting average on balls in play) among the remaining playoff teams.

Corey Seager has a .680 on-base percentage in the first five games and rookie Evan Carter has six hits in 14 at-bats with four of those being extra-base hits. Both of these players have an ops of 1.450 or higher in this postseason.

For the Astros, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Abreu have stepped up as key influencers in the Astros’ seventh straight trip to the ALCS. Collectively, they have batted in 14 of the 20 runs for the Astros, and they have done most of that damage via the long ball.

Alvarez came out on fire in Game 1, hitting two homers and delivering three crucial RBIs in the 6-4 win. In Game 3, Abreu stepped up for two homers and five RBIs in a 9-1 victory in which Alvarez hit a home run in his third consecutive postseason game.

If the bats can come out hot in this series like they did in the divisional series, it will be up to the pitchers to try to limit these high-powered offenses. Justin Verlander will start Game 1 for Houston, and Jordan Montgomery will likely take the mound for the Rangers.

When facing the current Rangers batters, Verlander has allowed a .241 batting average and 0.614 OPS in 133 at-bats. Marcus Semien has a .326/.535/.860 slash line (AVG/SLG/OPS) versus Verlander in his 43 career at-bats and will look to lead off the series for what would be his third career home run versus Verlander.

Nathaniel Lowe has also fared well against Verlander in 11 at bats hitting for a .364 average, and Seager is .250 in 20 at bats versus Verlander. Robbie Grossman and Mitch Garver are the only Rangers to bat third in the lineup during these playoffs, and they have struggled against Verlander in their careers. Grossman has only four hits in 23 at-bats for a .174 average and seven strikeouts, while Mitch Garver has posted seven strikeouts in 11 career at-bats with only one hit facing Verlander.

The Rangers have hit .251 for four home runs in 187 at-bats against Framber Valdez, and .244 with seven home runs in 123 at-bats against Christian Javier in their careers.

In comparison, Houston has fared better when facing the Rangers starters. Against Eovaldi, Houston has hit for a .307 average, for 11 home runs in 150 at-bats.

In his most recent start versus the Astros, Jose Altuve hit two home runs in his first two at-bats off of Eovaldi, before hitting his third consecutive home run in the third inning off of Dane Dunning. Alvarez has faced Eovaldi in 11 at-bats in his career, in those at-bats, he has three doubles, a home run and eight hits for a staggering .727 average and 1.987 OPS.

In 43 at-bats this season, the Astros have hit for a .233 average against Scherzer, and who else would you expect besides Alvarez to hit a home run in one of his two plate appearances against Scherzer this season?

Jordan Montgomery has pitched twice this postseason and in his most recent outing against the Orioles, he allowed nine hits and five runs (four earned) in four innings versus Baltimore. In his first start of the postseason, he pitched seven scoreless innings allowing six hits to the Rays.

The Astros have hit .275 against Montgomery in 80 at-bats with only two home runs. Montgomery will be on the mound with a short leash, given the added depth Texas has in their starting pitching combined with Montgomery’s most recent outing against the Orioles.

Even with all the previous matchups pointing toward the Astros bats having an edge, it is obvious having watched this postseason, that nothing in the past matters going into this series. Both teams have an opportunity to make a run at a World Series.

Both of these teams have starting pitchers who might not get to see the mound at all during this series, so it will be interesting to see who Dusty Baker and Bochy decide to give the ball to, and how long their leashes will be.

Carson Schuler is a third-year majoring in broadcast journalism, to contact him please email cts5357@psu.edu