World Baseball Classic predictions

After three long years of waiting and months of being forced to watch something called “the Olympics,” the best tournament in sports is finally back! The World Baseball Classic had an unforgettable run in 2023 and was a treat for baseball fans longing for the sport’s return.

The best players in the best sport are going at it again for their respective countries, trying to win gold for their homelands. While it may seem unpredictable with so many high-powered super-teams, what if I told you that I have the script?

I have carefully analyzed each of the 20 teams participating. Seeing if they are better or worse than 2023, how they looked against MLB competition, what their pool play schedule looks like, and potential underdog stories.

According to my imaginary crystal ball and highly advanced research capabilities (MLB.com and ESPN), here is how the 2026 World Baseball Classic will play out:

Pool A

Puerto Rico 3-1

Canada 3-1

Panama 2-2

Cuba 1-3

Colombia 1-3

Pool A is an interesting case. On paper, Puerto Rico should go 4-0 in a rather weak pool, but they seem likely to underperform.

The pitching outside of Edwin Díaz is suspect, and the absence of Francisco Lindor will hurt. Still, they are the best team in this pool and will win three games.

Canada will be my first underdog that makes it to the quarterfinals. Their win against the Phillies proved they can make some noise even without Freddie Freeman.

In 2023, they unfortunately had to share a pool with the USA and Mexico, but this year they will prove they’re good enough for the quarterfinals. The tiebreaker will go to Puerto Rico after they win the head-to-head battle.

Pool B

USA 4-0

Mexico 3-1

Italy 2-2

Great Britain 1-3

Brazil 0-4

This is a very top-heavy pool, but one that the United States should easily breeze through. They look like the team to beat in this tournament with dominant victories against the Giants and Rockies.

Nothing strikes fear into the hearts of other nations quite like a top five of Bobby Witt Jr, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Alex Bregman. Add a pitching staff that’s lightyears more talented than 2023? Good luck.

Mexico looks good on paper and has played well thus far. The main thing they need to do is keep Italy at bay. They’re a solid club who could easily turn into a feel-good underdog story, but like Canada three years prior, they will be the victims of the United States and Mexico.

The US will be Mexico’s only loss, solidifying them as the winner. Mexico has had its number in this tournament in years past, but the difference is that they weren’t dealing with Paul Skenes and his group of Monstars back then.

Pool C

Japan 4-0

Australia 2-2

Korea 2-2

Chinese Taipei 1-3

Czechia 1-3

Let’s get one thing straight: All the pressure is on Japan to run the table on this pool. This will be the weakest in the tournament by far, but also the most entertaining.

Every game between the latter four teams will be tightly contested, making for some of the most entertaining late-night television we’ve seen since the fall.

Through all the chaos these teams will bring, the ending will live up to the hype. Korea and Australia will face off in their last pool game at the Tokyo Dome at 6 a.m. Monday for a thriller. Australia will walk it off to take the number two spot and punch their ticket to the quarterfinals once again. At the same time, Shohei Ohtani and crew comfortably pummel the poor Czech plumbers and electricians a day later to once again live up to the pressure and cruise to first place.

Pool D

Dominican Republic 4-0

Venezuela 3-1

Netherlands 2-2

Israel 1-3

Nicaragua 0-4

It would be a shocker of a lifetime if the Dominican Republic and Venezuela don’t clinch the top two spots here.

The Dominicans have waited three years to avenge the embarrassment of the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and they will come out scorching. Arguably the best team in the tournament, their firepower and pride for their country are too strong for the others to handle, literally.

Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ketel Marte and Julio Rodríguez in the same lineup? With “The Machine” as manager? If I were Israel or Nicaragua, I’d call it a win if I kept them from putting 20 on my head.

Speaking of those two dumpster fires, they can’t both go 0-4, so with the limited MLB talent they have, Israel will win head-to-head to avoid ultimate embarrassment.

The Netherlands is a decent team that will be fun to watch and can give the top two teams a fight in all four games, but the top two teams will be a little too much to handle for the Dutch.

Venezuela will crush the competition as well, but will lose to the Dominicans in the last game of pool play on Wednesday.

Quarterfinals: *winner in bold

Canada vs USA

In this matchup between the Pool B winner and Pool A runner-up, I think we all know what will happen.

The Americans will once again teach their northern neighbors a third lesson in the last month, this one harsher than the last two, as they advance to the semifinals with ease.

Mexico vs Puerto Rico

A tough clash between two teams trying to repeat some magic found last season. That magic will be found in Puerto Rico.

Mexico will look visibly worse as the tournament goes on, and Díaz will shut the door in the ninth as they’ll find themselves being a round one exit to a Puerto Rican team with lots to prove.

Australia vs Dominican Republic

Australia, it was a good run.

Japan vs Venezuela

Easily the matchup of the quarterfinals, Japan and Venezuela will bring high-powered offenses and elite baseball pedigree to the table. Much like 2023, however, Venezuela will run into a team that’s built for moments like this.

In an epic conclusion to the quarterfinals, the defending champs will win a high-scoring affair carried by the likes of Seiya Suzuki, Masataka Yoshida and Ohtani. This also screams like a game where Munetaka Murekami truly comes alive, much like the semifinals three years ago.

Semifinals:

Puerto Rico vs USA

Pools A and B seem destined to help the USA reach the finals, and they will not let that chance slip. Puerto Rico will keep things close, but the US will come out on top.

I predict this is the game where the bottom of the order comes alive. Roman Anthony and Byron Buxton will silence the haters, and Harper will really look like his MVP self while protected by Judge.

Team USA has already confirmed that Skenes will pitch the semifinal if necessary. With all of those factors in mind, we will be saying “Adios” to team Puerto Rico in the semifinal.

Japan vs Dominican Republic

No, that is not a typo, nor is it a bad font error. The biggest upset of the World Baseball Classic will happen in the most unfortunate game for the Dominican Republic, while the defending champions prove why they won in the first place.

Don’t get me wrong, I truly believe team DR is better, but one thing I learned after 2023 is that you can never count Japan out, especially in baseball. Baseball might be the most popular sport in the Dominican Republic, but it’s a way of life in Japan.

Assuming Ohtani is the starting pitcher in this game, he will show why he’s the best to play the game. He will take one look at the grossly overpowered Dominican lineup and shut them down as only he can. If there’s one sport that has the randomness that allows an upset like this to happen, it’s baseball.

There isn’t a group of guys that handles pressure like Team Japan, and in this game, they’ll show why they will always be a force to be reckoned with in the baseball world.

Championship:

USA vs Japan

The long-awaited 2023 rematch will commence. Millions tuned into their TV screens to watch baseball’s two best countries face each other again for another incredible matchup.

It will once again be a pitcher’s duel as Japan's calm demeanor figures out the tendencies of this ruthless USA offense.

Japan will take an early lead against the rookie Nolan McLean and hold it for five innings. Down 2-1 in the bottom of the eighth with Brice Turang and Bobby Witt Jr. on first and second, Bryce Harper will hit a 3-run home run to put the Americans up 4-2.

Mason Miller will come in from the bullpen and allow the tying run to reach base with two outs and Shohei Ohtani up at the plate. There, poetic justice will be served.

Miller will get Ohtani swinging at a breaking ball on the right side of the plate just like he did to Mike Trout three years ago, ending the game and bringing the gold home as another present for the United States’ 250th birthday.

Brady Welsh is a second-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email bdw5435@psu.edu.