Why the San Fransisco Giants are the MLB "boom or bust" team of 2026

When evaluating MLB teams in the preseason, it is usually easy to project where they will finish in the standings. The Los Angeles Dodgers are widely expected to be a 100-win team, while the Colorado Rockies are projected to struggle to reach 60 wins.

One team, however, defies easy prediction entering the 2026 season: the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants were as average a team as can be last season, finishing 81-81. Several notable moves this offseason could position them for a resurgence similar to their 2021 campaign, or they could remain largely unchanged. Here is a closer look.

First, the Giants feature several solid offensive contributors who remain defensive liabilities. That group includes Heliot Ramos in left field and Jung Hoo Lee in right field.

Ramos and Lee posted OPS+ marks of 108 and 110, respectively, but neither provided enough offensive value to offset their defensive shortcomings. Ramos ranked fourth-worst in defensive value last season, while Lee finished 26th from the bottom.

Lee is expected to move to right field, which should lessen some of the defensive burden, but he will still need to improve his offensive production to become the dependable star the Giants envisioned when they signed him.

Ramos faces an even steeper challenge. Producing just 8% above the league average at the plate is not enough to compensate for his defensive struggles, and significant improvement is necessary for him to maintain a regular role.

On the other end of the spectrum are the Giants’ defensive standouts who provide limited offensive value. That group includes newly signed center fielder Harrison Bader and catcher Patrick Bailey.

Bader has played for six teams over the past four seasons, largely because his elite defense makes him a frequent trade-deadline target. He remains one of the premier defensive center fielders in the league, consistently posting Gold Glove-caliber metrics with his range and instincts.

At catcher, the Giants retain the best defensive catcher and defensive player in baseball by wide margins in Bailey, a 26-year-old former first-round pick.

Bailey was widely viewed as a Platinum Glove snub last season after producing elite defensive numbers, including 19 defensive runs saved, the most among catchers, and a 31 fielding run value, which led all major leaguers.

Last season. Bailey finished 27 percent below league average at the plate. Bader showed some improvement offensively, but still must prove he can sustain consistency over multiple seasons.

Next is the “very high ceiling” tier, which includes Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames.

The trio has combined for 93.6 career bWAR, a clear indication of how dominant San Francisco’s infield could be. With Devers at first base, Adames at shortstop and Chapman anchoring the hot corner, the ceiling for this group’s offensive production is exceptionally high.

Last season alone, the trio accounted for 11.9 bWAR, with each player contributing more than 3.5. Their OPS+ numbers, 130 for Devers, 120 for Chapman and 111 for Adames, highlight their impact as offensive forces. San Francisco can expect this infield to continue delivering at a high level in 2026.

The final tier for the offense is the “I have no idea what to expect” group. This includes new second baseman Luis Arraez, rookie slugger Bryce Eldridge, and much of the team’s bench.

Arraez enters San Francisco as one of the most overrated players in baseball, signing a one-year, $12 million deal despite producing just 2.2 bWAR combined over the past two seasons.

Arraez’s three straight batting titles from 2022 to 2024 have caused many to overlook his defensive flaws. With little to no power, the Giants can expect mostly bloop singles at the plate and continued struggles in the field.

Eldridge, by contrast, is on the other end of the spectrum. After a rough first week in the majors last season, he is widely expected to take a significant step forward this season.

Drafted with 60-grade tools in both power and arm strength on the 20–80 scale, and described on his MLB.com profile as "the best two-way talent in the 2023 draft," Eldridge comes to the Giants with high expectations.

Standing 6-foot-7 and weighing 240 pounds of muscle, Eldridge hit a combined 48 home runs in the 2024 and 2025 minor league seasons. He could easily be slotted at designated hitter or first base, depending on how the Giants choose to deploy Devers.

On the pitching side, the staff’s ace is Logan Webb.

A two-time All-Star, Webb has finished in the top six of National League Cy Young voting in three consecutive seasons. During that stretch, he led the National League in innings pitched each year while maintaining a 3.31 ERA, establishing himself as one of the most dominant arms on the planet.

After Webb, the rotation becomes less certain. For the second, third and fourth starter roles, the Giants are expected to rely on veteran journeyman pitchers to fill out the staff. This group includes Robbie Ray, Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser.

Ray won the 2021 American League Cy Young Award with Toronto but struggled from 2022 to 2024, providing little value to either the Mariners or the Giants. He bounced back last season, posting 2.8 bWAR and earning an All-Star selection. The Giants will be hoping he carries that momentum into his age-34 season.

Mahle and Houser are also both over 30, but still very solid. The two round out the middle of the rotation, while third-year pitcher Landen Roupe takes the final slot.

The Giants’ bullpen is easily the team’s weakest area, and likely the unit opponents will target. No reliever is projected to contribute more than 1 WAR in the upcoming season.

With this Giants roster, the 2026 season could go in several directions. The infield is a true strength, while the bullpen remains a glaring weakness.

The rotation and outfield are slightly above average, leaving questions about consistency. On paper, they have the pieces to compete, but with much of the team unchanged, it’s interesting to see what will push them past last year’s 81-81 finish.

Ceiling: 101-61

Floor: 82-80

Jack Dobbins is a first-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email jwd5889@psu.edu.