U.S. Grand Prix preview

Formula 1 is back.

There are six races to go in the eight-week sprint to Abu Dhabi, with three drivers still driving for the title.

The season restarts in Austin on October 13 before heading to Mexico City the week after. A week off, followed by an always chaotic trip to São Paulo, then another week off, sets up the final triple header of the season under the lights of Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

The Circuit of the Americas is a 3.2-mile track with twenty corners and plenty of overtaking zones, most notably turn one.

This is the one track where you don’t want pole position, as getting P2 and starting on the inside line into the sharp corner up the hill from the grid is the easiest overtaking opportunity of the year.

There are DRS zones out of the final corner down the pit straight and out of turn eleven, making turn twelve another major opportunity for overtakes.

Charles Leclerc won this race last year, diving down the inside in the first turn of the race to go from P4 to P1 before dominating the rest of the way.

This is also a sprint weekend, so we will see FP2 and FP3 replaced by sprint qualifying and a 19-lap shootout before the main event on Sunday.

As things stand after the final prolonged break of the season, Oscar Piastri holds a 22-point advantage over teammate Lando Norris in the World Drivers’ Championship.

While the two Papaya drivers have dominated all season, it would be silly to count out Max Verstappen.

Looking to join Michael Schumacher as the only driver to win five titles in a row, the Dutchman has been on a storm out of the summer break. He finished second in Zandvoort and Singapore and won in Monza and Baku, potentially setting himself up for an outside chance at the title.

He still trails Piastri by 60 points, but if anyone can pull off what would be one of the most impressive titles we have ever seen, it would be Verstappen.

Before talking about the three contenders and how they stack up, there are some other important stories to discuss.

Impending Gloom In Maranello

In what has already been a dreadful year for Ferrari, this weekend should find them struggling worse than they have all year.

It may come as a surprise, given that they had a one-two finish with Leclerc winning this race last year, and Lewis Hamilton is the winningest driver ever around Austin.

However, the concern has nothing to do with the drivers.

From the disqualification in China to Leclerc’s situation in Hungary, ride height has been a major issue for the SF-25 all year.

Hamilton’s sprint pole and win in China and Leclerc’s first 40-or-so laps in Hungary show that this car does have potential, but that potential can only be unlocked while running so low that they will be disqualified for excessive plank wear.

COTA is a track that has plenty of bumps and hills, two things that do not bode well for the ride height problems.

Even going back two years, Leclerc was disqualified in this race for plank wear after starting on pole.

Ferrari will have to choose between either riding low and risking disqualification or riding higher and not being competitive.

Whatever they choose, I expect this will not be a very pleasant weekend for the Tifosi.

My bold take is that neither Ferrari driver will enter Q3 on Saturday, and they will only manage to have one driver in the points.

What Is In Store For The Home Team?

For all of the talk about Isack Hadjar and his performance this year, I do not think he has been the best rookie, as everyone is saying.

This is to take nothing away from the Frenchman, who has had a phenomenal rookie season, but I think someone else is flying heavily under the radar.

Oliver Bearman’s rookie season has been by far the strongest, and it is not being talked about nearly enough.

Unlike Hadjar, who gets to face off with another rookie (and one who was demoted from another team after two races at that), and the rest of the rookies who are losing to their teammates, Bearman has taken on a very talented and established driver in Esteban Ocon and been comfortably faster for the entire year.

Bearman has run into an incredible amount of bad luck and has also made a habit of finishing just out of the points in eleventh, but his raw pace numbers show his performance.

According to @DeltaData_ on Twitter, who analyzes pace from every single competitive lap, Bearman has been on average two-tenths of a second per lap quicker than Ocon across qualifying and races this season.

When comparing that to Pierre Gasly’s 2023 season (I will not use 2024 because while I normally think fans’ sabotage claims are unfounded, Gasly was obviously getting preference post-Monaco), that puts rookie Bearman at least around a tenth-and-a-half faster than someone who many believe is one of the best drivers in the sport.

His performances have only gotten stronger as the season has gone on, and I believe Singapore was Bearman’s best weekend of the season.

While Ocon qualified 19th and was knocked out in Q1, the young Englishman was able to qualify and finish ninth in what was likely the eighth fastest car on the grid, ending the race more than 50 seconds up the road from his teammate.

Haas is the final team to bring a major upgrade package this season, having multiple new parts for their home race.

My bold prediction here goes along with the one above about Ferrari. I think Bearman will be the highest scoring driver in any of the cars powered by a Ferrari engine, managing a top-eight finish at Haas’ home race.

The Three Title Contenders

The storyline that everyone will be looking at is the battle between Piastri, Verstappen, and Norris.

It is impossible to predict who will win this weekend, but I think you can come up with reasons why all of them will win and why they won’t.

Piastri has been the quicker driver by a slight margin this year compared to his teammate, and the MCL-39 should have a major advantage this weekend.

No car in F1 history has ever been able to control tire temps as well as this McLaren does, and on a hot and sunny Sunday in Austin, being able to avoid a second pit stop could be crucial.

The reason I have concerns about Piastri is that COTA is never a track where he has performed well.

Between sprints and grand prix, he has qualified fifth, tenth, 16th and fifth. His corresponding race results have been tenth, DNF, tenth, and fifth. He is 0-8 against Norris in combined race and quali head-to-head and has only finished in the points once in four tries. This is not a great sign.

For Norris, his hope comes from what I said above. The car should be the best, and he has dominated Piastri here.

His focus needs to be on avoiding costly mistakes like he made last year, when he picked up a five-second penalty for leaving the track to gain an advantage against Verstappen, which cost him a podium finish.

For Verstappen, his confidence would come in his post-summer break results. He has finished at least 2nd in every race since Zandvoort, and this is especially encouraging when Baku and Singapore are the two tracks where he has struggled the most in his career.

In a sprint weekend, I also trust Red Bull to get it right with the setup.

Practice time in advance of the race is cut down from the normal three sessions to a single one-hour session on a sprint weekend, and Red Bull has shown to be the team that is able to nail the car with the limited amount of practice time.

If you asked me three weeks ago, I would not have said I think Verstappen can win this race. However, after watching the performance he and the RB-21 had on that hot Singapore night where he made the difference compared to the McLaren’s supposed tire advantage, I think he can and will win this race.

My top ten prediction is: 1st: Verstappen, 2nd: Norris, 3rd: Russell, 4th: Piastri, 5th: Antonelli, 6th: Sainz, 7th: Alonso, 8th: Bearman, 9th: Leclerc and 10th: Albon.

Edison Pellumbi is a first-year student studying broadcast journalism. To contact him, email him at ejp5889@psu.edu.