The Case for every SEC Team to make the CFP

The College Football playoff is rapidly approaching, and in the most recent rankings, the SEC had 5 representatives.

Texas A&M and Alabama are ranked #3 and #4, respectively, meaning both would earn a first-round bye. Georgia is ranked #5, while Ole Miss and Texas would face off in the first round, ranked #7 and #10, respectively.

Now, there are still three more weeks of regular season action, so these rankings are very much subject to change. With that being said, the SEC is very deep with talent and playoff-caliber teams. Is it possible that every team has a case to make the CFP?

To put it bluntly: No. Obviously. So, I will divide each team into a set of tiers showing their real chance of playing deep into December.

The “It would take every other team in Division I getting banned from the Playoff for cheating” Tier: 5 Losses or More

Arkansas, Mississippi State, Auburn, Kentucky, and Florida: These teams have a combined seven wins in the SEC. Combined. This tier accounts for two coaches fired mid-season, five wins on the road (yes, that is once again, combined), and a collective 0% chance of anyone making the playoffs.

The “LSU” tier: 4 Losses

LSU: If you couldn’t tell by the tier name, LSU is the only SEC team with four losses.

Anything more than three losses makes it extremely difficult to make the playoffs, and LSU doesn’t have the resume to defy the odds.

Their biggest win this season was against… Florida in week 3? Clemson in the opener? They don’t have a lot of big wins. The Tigers dropped three straight to Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Alabama.

If LSU had won one of those games, maybe we’d be having a different discussion. But they didn’t. So we aren’t.

The “Win Out and Pray” Tier

Tennessee: We’ve now reached teams with a puncher’s chance.

The Volunteers have lost all three ranked games they have played. If they win out, it would include a victory at Florida and against Vanderbilt, two games the committee would likely view highly.

With a 9-3 record, there would need to be bad losses from other potential at-large teams. Schools like Utah, Oklahoma, Michigan and BYU would need to drop some important games for Tennessee to leapfrog them and into the top 12.

Is it likely? Not really. Their case is pretty small.

Missouri: Man, losing Beau Pribula hurts badly.

Even if the Tigers win their last three games, including going on the road at Oklahoma, I have a hard time seeing them make the playoffs.

They’re in the same boat as Tennessee in what they’d need to happen across the country, except the committee sees this team as incomplete: They’re led by a true freshman at quarterback.

If Pribula was playing, it would not take as much to go their way for them to make the playoffs. They did not make the rankings in the CFP committee’s recent rankings, and only a miracle could put them in the top twelve.

The “Win Out and You’re In” Tier

Oklahoma: Their season rests on next week’s game.

If the Sooners go on the road and beat Alabama, it’ll be their fourth-ranked win of the year. If they then beat LSU and Missouri to close the season, can the committee keep out a two-loss SEC team that beat the Crimson Tide? I don’t think so.

If they lose, I don’t see another road to getting in. There would likely be a case for six better SEC teams in this scenario.

Vanderbilt: The Commodores are on the doorstep of a destiny season.

Sitting at 8-2, Vanderbilt has games against Kentucky and at Tennessee remaining. If they win both, I would be hard-pressed to leave them out.

Unfortunately, a lot of their ranked wins have not aged well as the season has progressed. South Carolina, LSU and Missouri are all currently unranked, unlike when Vanderbilt faced off against them.

Even without the top-tier resume, this team has done enough to pass the eye test and should be a playoff team if they win out.

Ole Miss: Like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss needs to win out. Unlike Vanderbilt, I don’t see a world where they don’t.

The Rebels finish the year against Florida and Mississippi State. Ole Miss has played like a top-seven team in the country all year, and I don’t see that changing down the stretch.

If they drop one of these games, things get very scary for their chances. I just cannot see that happening, though.

The “Can Afford to Lose One” Tier

Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Texas: Almost all of these teams (Sorry Texas) have arguments to be the best team in the country.

Texas plays both Georgia and Texas A&M as part of its final games. If they lose both, four losses would be hard to put into the playoffs.

Just dropping one, however, would likely be viewed by the committee as an extreme quality loss and put little stress on their chances.

8-1 Georgia plays the aforementioned Longhorns, as well as #16 Georgia Tech. A potential two-loss Bulldogs team will never be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

Alabama hosts Oklahoma this weekend and travels to Auburn in the last game of the year. Oklahoma should be the only truly losable game, but crazier things have happened in Jordan-Hare. In any case, they can absolutely afford one more loss.

Finally, Texas A&M is almost as safe as safe can get. Their last three games are against South Carolina, Samford and Texas. I’m convinced they could lose to South Carolina and Texas and still make the playoff. That’s how good they’ve looked this season.

Brendan Kern is a second-year majoring in Broadcast Journalism. To contact him, email bwk5372@psu.edu