The case for and against paying Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker is going to be the most expensive free agent this winter, but there is a lot of debate around how much he should get.

Some say 300 million, some say nearly 500 million is on the table.

Here are what I think are the reasons that you might want to pay him or might want to stay away.

For: Stars hitting the market is rare

Tucker isn’t as good as Juan Soto, for example, but he’s a very good player.

When you look at the future free agency classes, there is a lack of very good players scheduled to hit the market.

Through the rest of this decade, the best position players scheduled to hit the market are Jazz Chisholm Jr., a 36-year-old Ketel Marte, a 37-year-old Jose Ramirez, or a 33-year-old Yordan Alvarez.

While he’s not a perfect free agent like Juan Soto was, teams have gotten smarter about locking down their young talents.

I can’t tell you the next time that a player who is definitely better than Tucker will hit free agency, so teams might need to take this chance while it’s still there.

Against: Bat speed

One of the best predictors of how a hitter will age is bat speed.

Tucker’s isn’t bad, but it is also not impressive.

His 72.1 MPH average bat speed ranks in the 49th percentile in the league.

Among all players on a 200 million dollar or more contract, only Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Mookie Betts had a worse bat speed than that.

Only Turner and Lindor on that list have not shown serious regression as they have aged into their 30s.

Those players all get most of their value from defense, which isn’t the case for Tucker.

If his bat regresses, it could be a very brutal contract.

For: He has some very impressive tools

While the bat speed might be a concern, he has many aspects to his offensive game that would bode well for the future.

His main strength his his vision.

He walks just as much as he strikes out, has an elite chase rate, and pulls the ball in the air a ton.

Those all suggest that he will continue to be a very good hitter going forward.

Even playing through a hamstring injury, he posted a 136 wRC+ in Chicago last season.

No matter what, whichever team signs him will be getting an elite bat next year.

Against: Defensive regression

This is probably the biggest concern for me.

In 2022, he was an elite outfielder with 5 Outs Above Average.

In 2025, he was below average with a -2 OAA.

This goes along with a regression in sprint speed.

He was down to a 26th percentile runner last year, which is certainly worrying when you factor in that he is only 28.

If he has slowed down this much before 30, it is justified to be concerned about how he will run after 30.

For: Leaving a pitcher’s park

2025 was his second-worst season post-COVID, but much of that is likely due to where he was playing.

Wrigley Field is notorious for being a brutal park, especially for left-handed batters.

He hit 23 home runs with the Cubs last season.

Had he played every game at Wrigley, he had 19 expected home runs according to Baseball Savant.

Had he played every game at, say, Yankee Stadium, he would have had 29 xHR.

He was already very good in 2025, but leaving Chicago could make him look even better.

Edison Pellumbi is a first-year student studying broadcast journalism. To contact him, email him at ejp5889@psu.edu.