Predicting 2026’s March Madness #1 Seeds

Deep into conference play already, we get an increasingly clear picture at who the #1 seeds are going to be.

While there is always the chaos of the end of the season, here is my best guess at who the four that stand above the rest will be.

Arizona

While they just played a game that was likely closer than they wanted it to be, Arizona is an easy selection here.

The Wildcats are 17-0, and are the near-unanimous #1 team in the AP Poll, getting 60 of the 61 top votes.

For them to miss out on a #1 seed, things would have to go incredibly wrong, but I do not expect that.

They have the best win of anyone in the country this year to go along with no losses, as their win in Storrs over UConn (who I will get to in a moment) is incredibly impressive.

Connecticut

As usual, nobody wants to see Dan Hurley’s boys when the calendar turns to the new year. UConn is rolling, currently on a 13-game win streak since their loss to Arizona by four points.

The Big East is unusually weak this year, and the Huskies should be favored in every game for the rest of the year.

While this does give them less room for error, I don’t expect them to need it. They have the best coach in the country, and I see UConn running the table.

Duke

Now this is where things get interesting.

While I do not believe Duke controls their own destiny, I would have them on the top line as of now.

I wouldn’t have Duke jumping UConn or Arizona if they win the rest of their games, excluding a conference title, but they could also be jumped by Michigan (depending on the result of the February game), Purdue, or Iowa State if they win a conference title.

Duke and Michigan play what will be the most important regular-season game of the year in DC on February 21.

For the loser, they would need a conference championship to have a chance at the top line. I see Duke being the slight favorites in that game, so I would put them as the #3 overall seed.

Michigan

While they’ve had some shaky performances recently, I think Michigan will get the final spot.

Michigan, Purdue, and Nebraska all control their destinies, as winning the B1G tournament would get them this spot.

I think Michigan will lose to Duke and at Purdue in the regular season, but getting the Boilermakers the second time around in the Big Ten title will propel them to the final #1 seed.

Edison Pellumbi is a first-year student studying broadcast journalism. To contact him, email him at ejp5889@psu.edu.