How Max Kepler’s PED suspension inadvertently helps Barry Bonds

On Jan. 9, 2026, former Twins and Phillies outfielder Max Kepler was suspended for using performance-enhancing substances. Logically, if he was suspended for their use, wouldn’t that mean he was playing at a much higher level than usual?

If that were the assumption, it would be incorrect. Kepler, in fact, posted the worst offensive season of his career, as measured by OPS+.

If a major league player is caught using PEDs, their Hall of Fame case is, for all intents and purposes, severely damaged. Some of the greatest players ever to step on a diamond remain excluded from baseball's premier club.

Alex Rodriguez, 16th all-time in Baseball-Reference WAR, and Roger Clemens, who ranks eighth, have both fallen short of election. Clemens will not be eligible for another opportunity until 2031, while Rodriguez received roughly 40% of the vote in 2026, well short of the 75% required for enshrinement.

However, the most notable omission in the history of America’s pastime is Barry Bonds, and it is not particularly close. Bonds owns the highest WAR of any player over the past 100 years and ranks fourth on the all-time list overall, yet remains unrecognized in Cooperstown.

The only reason Bonds is not in the Hall of Fame or a first-ballot inductee, for that matter, is his well-documented use of steroids.

Despite being MLB’s all-time home run leader, a seven-time MVP, a 14-time All-Star, an eight-time Gold Glove winner and the league’s all-time leader in walks, Bonds’ legacy remains absent from Cooperstown, largely because of his association with steroid use.

However, Kepler’s suspension this season raises a logical question. If he was using steroids, why was he not automatically an elite hitter? Why did he not post a .444 on-base percentage, the average Bonds produced over the course of his career?

The answer lies in the reality that there are distinct levels within Major League Baseball. It is widely documented that Barry Bonds began using illegal substances following the 1998 MLB season, commonly remembered as the home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa.

If Bonds began using steroids in 1999, a hypothetical look at only his pre-1999 résumé is still mind-blowing. Through the 1998 season, Bonds compiled 99.9 career bWAR, which would rank 33rd on the all-time list. Every player ahead of that number is either a Hall of Famer, a known steroid user or Albert Pujols, who is widely viewed as a near-lock first-ballot inductee in 2028.

The accolades are no less impressive. Before 1999, Bonds had already won three MVP awards and finished in the top 10 of MVP voting eight times. He retained all eight of his Gold Gloves, was an eight-time All-Star, hit 411 home runs and posted a 164 OPS+, which would rank 14th all-time. The list of accomplishments goes on and on.

So after establishing that Bonds’ pre-1999 performance was achieved without steroids, the question remains: why is he not in the Hall of Fame?

The reasoning rests on the mistaken idea that steroids can magically make you a better player. This could not be further from the truth. Steroids primarily help baseball players by increasing muscle mass and strength, which can lead to faster bat speed, harder hits, more home runs, and quicker recovery between games. Still, they do not automatically create hitting skill, plate discipline, or baseball IQ.

Bonds also experienced drawbacks from steroid use. After bulking up, he did not win a single Gold Glove, despite winning eight in the prior nine seasons. He was also significantly slower, dropping from an average of 38 stolen bases per 162 games before 1999 to just 10.3 per 162 games for the remainder of his career.

Max Kepler could have used steroids for his entire career and still would not have come close to the level Barry Bonds reached naturally before ever using substances.

Barry Bonds drew an incredible 1,357 walks before ever using steroids, in just 8,100 plate appearances. That alone would rank him 34th on the all-time list. The next player ahead of him in terms of walks relative to plate appearances is Joey Votto, who had 1,365 walks in 8,746 plate appearances. If Bonds had matched Votto’s 8,746 plate appearances while maintaining his pre-1999 walk rate of 16.75%, he would have drawn an additional 108 walks, pushing his total to 1,465 and skyrocketing him to 22nd on the all-time walks list.

Bonds always had a supernatural eye and was the definition of a five-tool player. He hit for power, with 441 pre-steroid home runs, for contact, batting .290, for speed, stealing 38 bases per 162 games, excelled in fielding with eight Gold Gloves, and boasted a cannon of a throwing arm, finishing in the top 10 in outfield assists six times. After he began using steroids, he lost the final three tools, leaving him as only a threat in the batter’s box rather than a complete player on the field.

Kepler was never truly elite in any of these areas, at best a solid power hitter and capable fielder, but clearly below average in the other three tools. His example shows that steroids are not an automatic fix. Talent is 90 percent of the equation, and if a player is not already exceptional without PEDs, there is little chance they will become great with them. Barry Bonds, on the other hand, had a Hall of Fame career before his steroid use even began. Situations like Kepler’s, where a suspension coincides with no performance boost or potential decline, could be the final domino to fall to get Bonds into the Hall.

Jack Dobbins is a first-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email jwd5889@psu.edu.