Could the Bengals still make the Playoffs?

The AFC North has been quite underwhelming this season.

The Baltimore Ravens weren’t just the front-runners to win the division entering the season, but they were the favorites to win the Super Bowl. A combination of injuries and poor performance has them with a 6-6 record.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a model of consistency for the last twenty years, and they started the season 4-1 with a clear lead in the division. They too sit at 6-6 after a mid-season crumbling.

The Cleveland Browns… are the Browns. They’re 3-9.

That leaves the Cincinnati Bengals. Heading into this season, the expectations were similar to their result last season: High-octane offense, abysmal defense, and maybe sneaking into the playoffs.

During Week 2 against the Jaguars, Joe Burrow left the game with a torn ligament in his left foot. All hope seemed lost. The offense dipped, the defense continued to look historically bad, and they had a 3-8 record heading into Thanksgiving.

Just when it seemed like their season was over, a hero emerged from the shadows.

Burrow, who was originally projected to miss the entire season, returned from injury for their matchup against the Ravens. Seemingly, Burrow’s presence alone transformed the Bengals.

The defense forced Lamar Jackson and the Ravens into five turnovers, their most this season. Burrow threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns without Tee Higgins. Most importantly, the Bengals recorded their largest win of the season, defeating Baltimore 32-14.

This leaves Cincinnati with a 4-8 record and two games out of the division lead. Is it really possible that the Bengals can win the division and make the playoffs?

To start, the Bengals would need to win their last five games. While their schedule is somewhat favorable, it would be very difficult.

They travel to Buffalo to play the Bills in Week 14. With how poor the defense has been this season, it is very possible that Josh Allen and James Cook dominate this game early and often.

For the sake of argument, let us assume that the defensive performance last week was not a fluke and the Bengals can slow down Buffalo. With a win there, they would have supreme momentum heading into a rematch with the Ravens.

While it’s hard to beat the same divisional opponent twice in a season, the Ravens have looked shaky for all of November. Assuming they cannot turn their offensive woes around next week versus Pittsburgh, the Bengals would be in a great spot to win this game.

Cincinnati closes the season against Miami, Arizona and Cleveland, three games they would be favored in handily. With wins there, they would finish the season 9-8.

Now, this is everything that they can control. The Bengals would need some help from Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

The Ravens would obviously need to lose to Cincinnati in Week 15, and then lose any of their other remaining games against Pittsburgh (twice), New England or Green Bay. It seems quite likely that they would drop one of these games.

This would put the Ravens and Bengals tied at a 9-8 record, with Cincinnati holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.

They would then need the Steelers to lose two more games, with at least one of them being in-division. Their remaining schedule consists of two games against Baltimore, at Detroit and Cleveland and at home against Miami.

History indicates that the Ravens and Steelers will split the series, and a loss at Detroit is extremely likely. This would result in the Steelers finishing the season 9-8, but the Bengals would have a better divisional record, giving them the tiebreaker and the division win.

Well, that’s the scenario. So how likely is it?

To be honest, not very. Sure, the situation outlined for Baltimore and Pittsburgh could very easily happen. However, the Bengals winning out does not seem realistic.

Their playoff hopes are probably dashed this weekend in Orchard Park. A win against the Steelers could reset the Ravens back to contending form heading into their Week 15 matchup against Cincinnati.

Maybe the defense collapses against one of the “layup” games, who knows? With how bad their defense has been nearly all year, that cannot be ruled out.

Should you bank on the Bengals running the table? No. Although no one banked on Burrow coming back from injury as quickly as he did, so they cannot be counted out.

Brendan Kern is a second-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him please email him at bwk5372@psu.edu.