Bubble Files: Examining the bubble teams for March Madness 2026

With the 2025 college football season nearly finished, all attention is shifting to college basketball and March Madness. Mid-January is right around the time bracketologists everywhere begin multiple weekly installments of bracketology. Still, it also marks the beginning of bubble watch, which involves keeping tabs on all the teams on the fringes of being in or out of the tournament.

Typically, a team’s NET ranking can determine the bubble, the mathematical formula college basketball uses to rank teams. Here are five teams that make up this year’s early edition of the bubble.

Seton Hall Pirates 14-3 NET Ranking: 39

The Big East is having a down year overall, but the Pirates have started strong in a bid to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2022, Kevin Willard’s last season as head coach. The problem for Seton Hall is its 1-3 record in Quadrant One games. The one win came over North Carolina State, a likely NCAA Tournament team.

The Pirates will need to win some of the Quad One games left on their schedule, but those opportunities will be limited because of the aforementioned Big East struggles. A problem for the Pirates is that all but one of those Quad 1 games will be on the road, and they can’t afford any nasty slip-ups against the bottom of the conference.

Texas Longhorns 11-6 NET Ranking: 40

The Longhorns have a strong 3-4 record in Quad One, at least compared to other bubble teams, but already have a loss in both Quad Two and Quad Three. Recent ranked wins on the road over Alabama and previously undefeated Vanderbilt on Jan. 14 helped the Longhorns climb all the way to No. 40 in the NET. The Longhorns will face several other bubble teams, including Texas A&M, Missouri and LSU, over the next two months and need to win most of those games to avoid the wrong side of the bubble.

Ohio State Buckeyes 11-5 NET Ranking: 41

Ohio State is 0-4 in Quad One games and already has a Quad Two loss to Pittsburgh. Fortunately for them, the Big Ten is full of opportunities to pick up quality wins. All five of Ohio State’s losses have been by ten points or less, three of which came against top 15 teams by a combined 12 points.

The Buckeyes will likely need multiple wins against Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia or Purdue to overcome those early losses to make the field.

TCU Horned Frogs 11-6 NET Ranking: 43

The Horned Frogs may be the most inconsistent and frustrating team in college basketball. They opened the season with a Quad Four loss at home to New Orleans, but nearly beat Michigan and took Kansas to overtime in Allen Fieldhouse. An overtime home loss to Notre Dame is also weighing on TCU, with the Fighting Irish struggling in ACC play.

The Horned Frogs cannot afford another Quad Three or Quad Four loss and need to steal a game or two against Iowa State, Houston or Texas Tech to overcome those early-season struggles and missed opportunities.

Baylor Bears 11-5 NET Ranking: 44

Baylor is 4-5 against the top two quadrants and 2-4 against Quad One opponents. Road losses to TCU and a struggling Memphis team are keeping the Bears on the bubble. Baylor has a strict schedule the rest of the way with road games against Kansas, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Iowa State, UCF and Houston. Baylor also hosts TCU, BYU and Arizona.

The Bears likely need to win two of those home games and three of the five road games, along with the rest of their schedule, to feel confident heading into conference tournament week in early March.

Nate Johns is a second-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email jzn5275@psu.edu.