Breaking down the NHL’s offensively historic season

There were 359 goals scored during 1917-18, the NHL’s first season, including regular season and playoffs. This year, there have been 5,546 goals so far, with nearly five months remaining in the season.

Some of the most obvious reasons for this stark difference and drastic increase from the league’s inaugural season to modern day are the number of games played and the number of teams.

In 1917-18, there were four teams in the league, one of which withdrew from play after six games. The remaining three teams played only 22 regular-season games, with two additional playoff games.

Today, 32 teams in the league play 82 regular-season games and 16 teams can play up to 28 games in the postseason.

Taking general league changes into account, there has still been a consistent increase in goal scoring recently. The Winnipeg Jets led the league in scoring last season with 275 in the regular season, over two-thirds of the league’s totals in its first two seasons.

The first season of NHL play had 22 games; the next season, 18; and the next five seasons, 24. Those numbers quickly increased to 44 regular-season games in 1926. The number of teams also increased to 10 that year, but it would take three seasons at these stats for the league to break 1,000 goals.

It would then take 12 additional seasons for all teams to score at least 100 goals consistently. In the 1981-82 season, the Edmonton Oilers became the first team to score 400 goals in a single season. From 1978-79 to 1993-94, every team in the league, which had increased to 24, scored 200 or more goals; since then, the total has fallen back to the mid- to high 100s.

Between the lockouts of 1994-95 and 2004-05, there was a distinct decrease in scoring, often dubbed the dead puck era. This can likely be attributed to the era's defensive focus, as well as significant rule changes, including modifications to goalie equipment, stricter goalie-interference and crease-presence rules, adjustments to offsides, and overall stricter enforcement and more penalty calls. The league has not yet returned to consistent 200+ goal seasons across all teams.

Total goals per season floated around 6,500-7,100 after the 2004-05 shutdown, except the shortened 2012-13 season. Numbers began increasing toward 8,000 in the 2017-18 season and have remained and inched closer to 9,000 since.

While the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were shortened due to COVID-19, numbers were on track to maintain the increasing goal-scoring pace, with teams averaging 3 goals per game. In the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, every team scored over 200 goals once again, as the 2022-23 season had the highest total of goals scored in league history, with 8,801 between the regular and postseason.

This year, the NHL is on pace to have similar goal totals to 2022-23 in just the regular season. They will likely reach 9,000 by the time the playoffs end.

However, all of this comes with stricter rules and harsher enforcement than ever. Goaltenders are more skilled and take up much more of the net with improved equipment and a general increase in the size of the players in the position. Fans (and even select players and coaches) often complain that games are too slow and share sentiments of “let the boys play.”

Despite this, goal totals continue to rise.

One contributor is the decrease in save percentages among goalies. Starting at .915 SV% in the 2014-15 season, the average save percentage has decreased by about .001 percentage points every year. Last season, the average save percentage was .900 SV%. This factor is both a cause of the increase in offenses and a reason for it.

Additionally, as the league tightens rules and calls more frequently, it allows skilled players to showcase their abilities. When their sticks are not hooked, they can handle the puck more effectively. When they are less likely to be slammed into the boards or have their wrists slashed, they can take some liberties and attempt riskier skill plays.

The structure of the game has also changed significantly as a result of rule changes, particularly during the post-dead-puck and lockout eras, when the league sought to increase scoring. The elimination of ties has increased goal totals, as tie games are now guaranteed to have at least one more goal than in past seasons. The league initially introduced overtime that could still result in ties, but went one step further to eliminate them with the introduction of the shootout post-lockout. Also, in the post-lockout 2005-06 season, the two-line pass rule was eliminated, thereby enabling longer passes and improving offensive breakout opportunities.

Additionally, due to stricter regulations, enforcers have largely disappeared. Players can no longer make NHL rosters by simply being tough. Each team member needs to be skilled and capable of producing offensively, which will lead to greater overall offensive production in the league.

The shift toward an almost exclusive focus on production has also altered the role of the defenseman. Often, defensemen are sought after and praised for offensive contributions rather than for their actual defensive play. While they must be able to defend, goal-scoring is the primary metric used to evaluate a player's talent and skill, regardless of position.

Finally, the main reason goal scoring continues to rise is that talent and skill are. The playmaking abilities, stickhandling, speed, hockey IQ, and shooting of every player are constantly increasing. The stars of the mid 1900s would struggle to make AHL rosters in the modern era, largely because the game is so different.

Offensive production and goal scoring are the primary objectives of teams, players, coaches, and GMs. It is also in the league's best interest to shape rules and structure the game to optimize offense, as this leads to higher viewership and overall league success. As skill increases and the league adapts to showcase those skills, goal scoring will continue to rise, and records will be broken.

Jenny Karamus is a first-year student majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact her, email jrk6308@psu.edu.